Neighborhood · Baldwin, NY

Bay Colony Eviction Risk: Lower

4 census tracts · pop 17,942 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3/10 · range 2.4–3.8

Bay Colony is a white-black neighborhood in Baldwin with 4 census tracts and a population of 17,942 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 3/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 43% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 37% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,189/month sits 16% higher than the Baldwin citywide average ($1,890).

Risk score

Lower

4 tracts · population-weighted

Bay Colony vs Baldwin How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

43.1% +33%

Baldwin: 32.4%

Average gross rent

$2,189 +16%

Baldwin: $1,890

Average HH income

$134,071 -4%

Baldwin: $139,840

Poverty rate

6.0% +11%

Baldwin: 5.4%

Renter share

7.1% -47%

Baldwin: 13.4%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Bay Colony and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 4 tracts span score 2.4–3.8

Why Bay Colony scores 3

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 7.3–7.3 across tracts

7.3

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts

5.5

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 5.9–5.9 across tracts

5.9

Rent control risk

43% of income on rent · Range 4.7–7.3 across tracts

6.1

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 6.7–6.9 across tracts

6.8

Tenant organizing strength

7% renter households · Range 3.3–6.4 across tracts

5.0

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 4.0–5.5 across tracts

4.8

Economic stress

6.0% below poverty line · Range 1.1–2.5 across tracts

1.5

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.9–8.5 across tracts

5.7

Risk score comparison

Bay Colony vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Bay Colony?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 1.4 points from 2.4 to 3.8. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.

Tracts as heat grid

3.8 3.1 2.6 2.4

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

4 tracts in Bay Colony

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
36059414502	3.8	3,881	55%	$2,296
36059414501	3.1	5,703	8%	$2,633
36059413804	2.6	3,973	74%	—
36059413803	2.4	4,385	49%	$3,501

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 37

Pop-weighted across 4 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 25%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 49%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 72%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 41%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Bay Colony

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

14.2%Housing insecurity
7.8%Utility shutoff threat
14.4%Food insecurity
11.0%SNAP enrollment
6.8%No health insurance
25.5%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Bay Colony

What is the eviction-risk score for Bay Colony?

Bay Colony scores 3/10 (Lower tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Bay Colony compare to Baldwin overall?

Bay Colony scores 5.3 points lower than Baldwin overall (8.3/10). Renters spend 43% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $2,189 vs $1,890.

What is the average rent in Bay Colony?

Average gross rent in Bay Colony is $2,189/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Bay Colony residents are renters?

7% of Bay Colony households are renter-occupied (vs 13% in Baldwin). The neighborhood has 17,942 residents.

Is Bay Colony a high social-vulnerability area?

Bay Colony sits in the 37th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Bay Colony have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Bay Colony is census tract 36059414502 (score 3.8/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 2.4 to 3.8, a spread of 1.4 points.

How safe is Bay Colony for landlords?

Bay Colony carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Baldwin as a whole (8.3/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Bay Colony?

Bay Colony has 17,743 residents (White-Black Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (39.6%), Black (non-Hispanic) (29.6%), Hispanic / Latino (22.7%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Bay Colony

2.3 Baldwin Harbor 3 tracts · pop 17,843 2.8 Millburn 2 tracts · pop 8,315 3 Stearns Park 9 tracts · pop 53,707 2.4 Oil City 5 tracts · pop 25,796 1.5 Merrickwood 7 tracts · pop 37,631 3.4 Merrick Court 3 tracts · pop 16,985

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Baldwin

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Bay Colony.

2.2 Baldwin Harbor 3 tracts · pop 17,843

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