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Neighborhood · Durham, NC

Carillon Forest Eviction Risk: Lower

1 census tracts · pop 4,146 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.5/10 · range 3.5–3.5

Carillon Forest maps to a single census tract in Durham, NC and houses 4,146 people. The Eviction Risk Score is 3.5/10, in the Lower tier. 39% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, higher than the Durham rate of 29.4%.

Pulling the other way is economic stress, at 1.6/10. This is a renter market: 71% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

19% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. On the softer side is rent-regulation exposure, at 2/10.

Average gross rent is $1,769, 17% above the Durham average of $1,508. SNAP participation is 4.8% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

Food insecurity affects 7.2% of adults, 10.6 points below the national rate. That places it #37 of 58 neighborhoods in Durham. Poverty sits at 6%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $80,483.

One tract means one number: 3.5/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
3.5
Lower
1 tracts · population-weighted
Carillon Forest vs Durham How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
38.9% +32%
Durham: 29.4%
Average gross rent
$1,769 +17%
Durham: $1,508
Average HH income
$80,483 +2%
Durham: $79,234
Poverty rate
6.3% -48%
Durham: 12.2%
Renter share
70.5% +48%
Durham: 47.7%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Carillon Forest and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 3.5–3.5

Why Carillon Forest scores 3.5

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 2.3–2.3 across tracts
2.3
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 8.1–8.1 across tracts
8.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts
7.5
Rent control risk
39% of income on rent · Range 2.0–2.0 across tracts
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 4.5–4.5 across tracts
4.5
Tenant organizing strength
71% renter households · Range 6.5–6.5 across tracts
6.5
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 4.5–4.5 across tracts
4.5
Economic stress
6.3% below poverty line · Range 1.6–1.6 across tracts
1.6
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.5–4.5 across tracts
4.5
Risk score comparison

Carillon Forest vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Carillon Forest score vs. parent city, state, U.S.3.5Carillon ForestNeighborhood4.0Parent cityhost city3.9Stateavg in state5.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

1 tracts in Carillon Forest

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕ Score↕ Pop↕ % over 30% on rent↕ Average rent↕
37063002029 3.5 4,146 39% $1,769
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 27

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 8%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 21%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 53%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 71%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Carillon Forest

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Carillon Forest

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Carillon Forest?

Carillon Forest scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Carillon Forest compare to Durham overall?

Carillon Forest scores 0.5 points lower than Durham overall (4/10). Renters spend 39% of income on rent vs 29% citywide. Average rent: $1,769 vs $1,508.
Q3

What is the average rent in Carillon Forest?

Average gross rent in Carillon Forest is $1,769/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Carillon Forest residents are renters?

71% of Carillon Forest households are renter-occupied (vs 48% in Durham). The neighborhood has 4,146 residents.
Q5

Is Carillon Forest a high social-vulnerability area?

Carillon Forest sits in the 27th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

How safe is Carillon Forest for landlords?

Carillon Forest carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.5/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Durham as a whole (4/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q7

What is the demographic breakdown of Carillon Forest?

Carillon Forest has 4,007 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (61%), Black (non-Hispanic) (19.4%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (9.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Carillon Forest

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Durham

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Carillon Forest.

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