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Neighborhood · Ranked #45,786 of 84,120 nationally

Heather Downs Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo

Tract 39095004503 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,413 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

With a score of 4.2/10, tract 39095004503 in the Heather Downs area of Toledo, OH reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,413. The severe-burden share is 44%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 13% Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units1,284
Renter share28.3%
SVI overall0.25
Poverty rate15.2%
Median income$57,865

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 5 tracts In Heather Downs
Moderate
Within parent city
27 th percentile
Rank, 27th percentileLowHigh
#89 of 121 tracts In Toledo
Low
Within county
47 th percentile
Rank, 47th percentileLowHigh
#89 of 168 tracts In Lucas County
Moderate
Within state
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#1,370 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Toledo and the region

Centroid at 41.5938, -83.6184 · click any tract to drill in

Why Heather Downs scores 4.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
15.2% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$777 rent vs county FMR
2.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0

How Heather Downs compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Heather Downs risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.24.2This tracttract 004503Toledo: 4.04.0Toledoparent cityCounty: 4.24.2Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 25

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 207Total filings over 15 yrs
  • 5.74%Avg annual filing rate
  • 7.6%Peak (2013)
  • 11Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2003 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 390950045032003: 7 filings (3.40/100 renter HHs)2004: 10 filings (4.85/100 renter HHs)2005: 18 filings (10.23/100 renter HHs)2006: 14 filings (7.95/100 renter HHs)2007: 10 filings (5.68/100 renter HHs)2008: 10 filings (5.68/100 renter HHs)2009: 16 filings (9.09/100 renter HHs)2010: 8 filings (2.80/100 renter HHs)2011: 16 filings (5.03/100 renter HHs)2012: 19 filings (5.97/100 renter HHs)2013: 24 filings (7.55/100 renter HHs)2014: 16 filings (5.03/100 renter HHs)2015: 13 filings (4.09/100 renter HHs)2016: 15 filings (5.08/100 renter HHs)2018: 11 filings (3.73/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 57% over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Heather Downs. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Heather Downs

The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.9/10. Against Lucas County at 41.3%, 53% of renters here are cost-burdened. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.

On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.4/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 207 filings here across 15 tracked years. At $777 a month, rents run 14% under what the rest of Toledo commands.

The worst year on record was 2013, when 7.6% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Toledo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 5.7% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 46th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $57,865, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 39095004503

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095004503?

Census tract 39095004503 in the Heather Downs neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39095004503?

Median gross rent is $777/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39095004503?

15.2% of residents in tract 39095004503 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,413.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39095004503?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 25th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 54th, household 21th, minority 35th, housing 11th.
Q5

Is tract 39095004503 considered part of Heather Downs?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095004503 fall within Heather Downs (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095004503?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 207 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095004503 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.74% of renter households, peaking at 7.6% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39095004503 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39095004503 compare to Toledo overall?

Tract 39095004503 scores 4.2/10, right in line with the parent city of Toledo at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 39095004503 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Toledo

Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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