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Neighborhood · Ranked #63,308 of 84,120 nationally

Mayflower Terrace Eviction Risk: Lower , Phoenix

Tract 04013103302 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 6,007 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

04013103302 is a census tract in the Mayflower Terrace area of Phoenix, AZ. It scores 3.2/10 for landlords. It is home to 6,007 residents. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score
3.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10% Stable renters 12% Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units2,183
Renter share22.4%
SVI overall0.60
Poverty rate5.5%
Median income$80,593

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Mayflower Terrace
Very Low
Within parent city
30 th percentile
Rank, 30th percentileLowHigh
#264 of 379 tracts In Phoenix
Low
Within county
47 th percentile
Rank, 47th percentileLowHigh
#537 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Moderate
Within state
44 th percentile
Rank, 44th percentileLowHigh
#983 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Phoenix and the region

Centroid at 33.6193, -112.0047 · click any tract to drill in

Why Mayflower Terrace scores 3.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Phoenix
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
5.5% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$1,668 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Phoenix
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Phoenix
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Phoenix
3.0

How Mayflower Terrace compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Mayflower Terrace risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.23.2This tracttract 103302Phoenix: 3.63.6Phoenixparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 60

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 523Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 13.66%Avg annual filing rate
  • 18.9%Peak (2004)
  • 80Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040131033022001: 118 filings (15.05/100 renter HHs)2002: 107 filings (13.65/100 renter HHs)2003: 70 filings (8.93/100 renter HHs)2004: 148 filings (18.88/100 renter HHs)2005: 80 filings (11.78/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 32% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Mayflower Terrace. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Mayflower Terrace

Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.4/10. 11% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Court records carry 523 eviction filings across 5 observed years. Filings peaked in 2004 at 18.9% of renter households.

In a typical year about 13.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 25% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Only 22% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 6.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 46% of renters.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013103302

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013103302?

Census tract 04013103302 in the Mayflower Terrace neighborhood scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013103302?

Median gross rent is $1,668/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013103302?

5.5% of residents in tract 04013103302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,007.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013103302?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 60th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 7th, minority 62th, housing 83th.
Q5

Is tract 04013103302 considered part of Mayflower Terrace?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013103302 fall within Mayflower Terrace (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013103302?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 523 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013103302 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 13.66% of renter households, peaking at 18.9% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013103302 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013103302 compare to Phoenix overall?

Tract 04013103302 scores 3.2/10, lower than the parent city of Phoenix at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Phoenix eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Phoenix

Top eight tracts in Phoenix ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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