Neighborhood · Ranked #47,256 of 84,120 nationally

Velda Rose Estates Eviction Risk: Moderate , Mesa

Tract 04013420202 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,130 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Census tract 04013420202 sits in the Velda Rose Estates neighborhood of Mesa, Arizona. It has a population of 5,130 and an eviction-risk score of 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). 65% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 9% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $1,652/month against a median household income of $66,444 — roughly 30% rent-to-income at the medians.

Risk score

5.1

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 23% Stable renters 13% Owners 64%

Tract context

Occupied units2,635

Renter share35.8%

SVI overall0.57

Poverty rate10.7%

Median income$66,444

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.4301, -111.6931 · click any tract to drill in

Why Velda Rose Estates scores 5.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Mesa

3.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

10.7% poverty · this tract

2.7

Supply constraint

$1,652 rent vs county FMR

3.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from Mesa

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Mesa

2.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Mesa

2.5

How Velda Rose Estates compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 57

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

61%Socioeconomic
64%Household composition
39%Racial/ethnic minority
44%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

185Total filings over 5 yrs
9.79%Avg annual filing rate
12.7%Peak (2001)
34Filings in 2005 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2001 — 2005

Filings dropped 24% over the past 5 months.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Velda Rose Estates. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

10.5%Housing insecurity
6.4%Utility-shutoff threat
15.5%Food insecurity
12.2%SNAP enrollment
8.4%Transit barriers
11.9%No health insurance
15.1%Frequent mental distress
36.7%Any disability

Frequently asked

About tract 04013420202

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013420202?

Census tract 04013420202 in the Velda Rose Estates neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04013420202?

Median gross rent is $1,652/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013420202?

10.7% of residents in tract 04013420202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,130.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013420202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 57th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 61th, household 64th, minority 39th, housing 44th.

Is tract 04013420202 considered part of Velda Rose Estates?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013420202 fall within Velda Rose Estates (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013420202?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 185 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013420202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.79% of renter households, peaking at 12.7% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 04013420202 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.4% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04013420202 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013420202 scores 5.1/10 — higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.