Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Samos Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019002703 · Pima, AZ · pop 3,690 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 04019002703 covers part of the Samos area of Tucson, AZ, and scores 5.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,690. 32% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 45%
Stable renters 34%
Owners 21%
Tract context
Occupied units1,953
Renter share79.7%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate31.4%
Median income$38,960
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
68
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
95
th percentile
Very High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2641, -110.9494 · click any tract to drill in
Why Samos scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
31.4% poverty · this tract
7.8
Supply constraint
$999 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Samos compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 65
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 84%Socioeconomic
- 2%Household composition
- 56%Racial/ethnic minority
- 89%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 949Total filings over 12 yrs
- 5.89%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.6%Peak (2005)
- 35Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 64% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Samos. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.4%Housing insecurity
- 10.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.1%Food insecurity
- 15.8%SNAP enrollment
- 12.0%Transit barriers
- 12.5%No health insurance
- 20.8%Frequent mental distress
- 32.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Samos
57% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Pima County average of 43.8%. 80% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. The poverty rate is 31%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.2/10.
The filing record is not thin: 949 evictions over 12 years of observation. At $999 a month, rents run 13% under what the rest of Tucson commands. The worst year on record was 2005, when 9.6% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 5.9% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 65% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.9/10.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019002703
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019002703?
Census tract 04019002703 in the Samos neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019002703?
Median gross rent is $999/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019002703?
31.4% of residents in tract 04019002703 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,690.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019002703?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 2th, minority 56th, housing 89th.
Q5
Is tract 04019002703 considered part of Samos?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019002703 fall within Samos (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019002703?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 949 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019002703 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.89% of renter households, peaking at 9.6% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019002703 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019002703 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019002703 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Samos
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Miramonte
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Pie Allen
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003801
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Flowing Wells
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019004117
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
West University
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Flowing Wells
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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