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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Pecan Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , San Tan Valley

Tract 04021000220 · Pinal, AZ · pop 4,137 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

04021000220 is a census tract in the Pecan Creek area of San Tan Valley, AZ. It scores 3/10 for landlords. Cost burden runs 74% here against 37.6% across Pinal County.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 5% Owners 81%
Tract context
Occupied units1,209
Renter share19.3%
SVI overall0.19
Poverty rate7.5%
Median income$106,780

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Pecan Creek
Very Low
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#10 of 19 tracts In San Tan Valley
Moderate
Within county
10 th percentile
Rank, 10th percentileLowHigh
#86 of 95 tracts In Pinal
Very Low
Within state
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#1,065 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across San Tan Valley and the region

Centroid at 33.2366, -111.5529 · click any tract to drill in

Why Pecan Creek scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from San Tan Valley
4.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
7.5% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$1,907 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from San Tan Valley
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from San Tan Valley
4.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from San Tan Valley
4.9

How Pecan Creek compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Pecan Creek risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.03.0This tracttract 000220San Tan Valley: 3.63.6San Tan Valleyparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 19

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Pecan Creek. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Pecan Creek

22% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.9/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.

Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.4/10. It sits 0.8 points below the Pinal County average of 3.8. SNAP participation runs 8.2% against 15.2% nationally.

Average gross rent is $1,907, 9% below the San Tan Valley average. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 19% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $106,780.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04021000220

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04021000220?

Census tract 04021000220 in the Pecan Creek neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04021000220?

Median gross rent is $1,907/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 74% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04021000220?

7.5% of residents in tract 04021000220 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,137.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04021000220?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 19th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 26th, household 93th, minority 56th, housing 0th.
Q5

Is tract 04021000220 considered part of Pecan Creek?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04021000220 fall within Pecan Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 04021000220 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04021000220 compare to San Tan Valley overall?

Tract 04021000220 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of San Tan Valley at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Tan Valley eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Tan Valley

Top eight tracts in San Tan Valley ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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