Eviction Risk in Johnson Ranch , San Tan Valley
Tract 04021000226 · Pinal, AZ · pop 6,586 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
Census tract 04021000226 sits in the Johnson Ranch neighborhood of San Tan Valley, Arizona. It has a population of 6,586 and an eviction-risk score of 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). 59% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 50% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $1,875/month against a median household income of $95,902 — roughly 23% rent-to-income at the medians.
Racial & ethnic composition
White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood — 6,718 residents. Source: ACS 5-year 2023 (Table B03002, tract level).
- Hispanic / Latino 24.5%
- White (non-Hispanic) 69.7%
- Black (non-Hispanic) 3.1%
- Other / Multiracial 2.7%
How the 5.2/10 score is composed
| Signal | Score | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Filing rate (county) | 7.4 | Eviction Lab via counties |
| State political climate | 2.2 | states.state_political_baseline |
| Regional political climate | 4.1 | 2024 county presidential margin |
| Local political climate | 4.7 | San Tan Valley (inherited) |
| Rent control risk | 5.5 | San Tan Valley (inherited) |
| Eviction process difficulty | 2.6 | state law |
| Tenant organizing strength | 4.4 | San Tan Valley (inherited) |
| Housing court bias | 4.9 | San Tan Valley (inherited) |
| Economic stress (tract) | 1.0 | this tract poverty rate |
| Supply constraint (tract) | 4.6 | tract rent vs county FMR |
SVI percentile: 18
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 21%Socioeconomic
- 34%Household composition
- 49%Racial/ethnic minority
- 14%Housing & transportation
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Johnson Ranch. Closest by composite score.
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.9%Housing insecurity
- 6.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.4%Food insecurity
- 7.0%SNAP enrollment
- 6.9%Transit barriers
- 9.9%No health insurance
- 16.9%Frequent mental distress
- 26.1%Any disability
About tract 04021000226
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04021000226?
Census tract 04021000226 in the Johnson Ranch neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The composite blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent burden + poverty signals.
What is the median rent in tract 04021000226?
Median gross rent is $1,875/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
What is the poverty rate in tract 04021000226?
3.8% of residents in tract 04021000226 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,586.
How socially vulnerable is tract 04021000226?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 34th, minority 49th, housing 14th.
Is tract 04021000226 considered part of Johnson Ranch?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04021000226 fall within Johnson Ranch (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
What share of households in tract 04021000226 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.9% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.