Neighborhood · Ranked #22,213 of 84,120 nationally

Old Town Eviction Risk: Moderate , Novato

Tract 06041102203 · Marin, CA · pop 5,486 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Tract 06041102203 covers Old Town in Novato in California. Home to 5,486 residents, it scores 5.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 66th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

68% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 15% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,027 a month against an average household income of $81,238 a year, roughly 30% of income at the averages. Renters make up 54% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.2

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 37% Stable renters 17% Owners 46%

Tract context

Occupied units2,336

Renter share53.7%

SVI overall0.86

Poverty rate9.6%

Median income$81,238

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Novato and the region

Centroid at 38.1104, -122.5703 · click any tract to drill in

Why Old Town scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Novato

8.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.3

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

9.6% poverty · this tract

2.4

Supply constraint

$2,027 rent vs county FMR

1.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Novato

8.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.8

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Novato

7.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Novato

6.5

How Old Town compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 86

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

57%Socioeconomic
84%Household composition
62%Racial/ethnic minority
98%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Old Town. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.3%Housing insecurity
6.3%Utility-shutoff threat
13.6%Food insecurity
11.8%SNAP enrollment
7.6%Transit barriers
9.1%No health insurance
15.8%Frequent mental distress
28.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Old Town

The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Novato, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Marin County average of 5.4 and below the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 12.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 86th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 06041102203

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06041102203?

Census tract 06041102203 in the Old Town neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06041102203?

Median gross rent is $2,027/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06041102203?

9.6% of residents in tract 06041102203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,486.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06041102203?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 86th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 57th, household 84th, minority 62th, housing 98th.

Is tract 06041102203 considered part of Old Town?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06041102203 fall within Old Town (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06041102203 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06041102203 compare to Novato overall?

Tract 06041102203 scores 5.2/10, lower than the parent city of Novato at 8.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Novato; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Novato

Top eight tracts in Novato ranked by composite eviction-risk score.