Neighborhood · Ranked #4,888 of 84,120 nationally

Old Town Eviction Risk: High , Novato

Tract 06041102203 · Marin, CA · pop 5,486 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

With a score of 8.7/10, tract 06041102203 in the Old Town area of Novato, CA reads high for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,486 residents. roughly two in three of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Marin County average of 51.0%.

Risk score

8.7

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 37% Stable renters 17% Owners 46%

Tract context

Occupied units2,336

Renter share53.7%

SVI overall0.86

Poverty rate9.6%

Median income$81,238

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Novato and the region

Centroid at 38.1104, -122.5703 · click any tract to drill in

Why Old Town scores 8.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Novato

8.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.3

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

9.6% poverty · this tract

2.4

Supply constraint

$2,027 rent vs county FMR

1.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Novato

8.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.8

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Novato

7.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Novato

6.5

How Old Town compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 86

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

57%Socioeconomic
84%Household composition
62%Racial/ethnic minority
98%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Old Town. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.3%Housing insecurity
6.3%Utility-shutoff threat
13.6%Food insecurity
11.8%SNAP enrollment
7.6%Transit barriers
9.1%No health insurance
15.8%Frequent mental distress
28.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Old Town

The clearest offset is court filing pressure at 1.1/10. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.1/10. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.5/10.

It sits 1.4 points above the Marin County average of 7.3. The severe-burden share is 15%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Average gross rent is $2,027, 19% below the Novato average. Nationally it ranks #4,888 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.7/10. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $81,238.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06041102203

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06041102203?

Census tract 06041102203 in the Old Town neighborhood scores 8.7/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06041102203?

Median gross rent is $2,027/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06041102203?

9.6% of residents in tract 06041102203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,486.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06041102203?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 86th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 57th, household 84th, minority 62th, housing 98th.

Is tract 06041102203 considered part of Old Town?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06041102203 fall within Old Town (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06041102203 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06041102203 compare to Novato overall?

Tract 06041102203 scores 8.7/10, higher than the parent city of Novato at 7.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Novato; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Novato

Top eight tracts in Novato ranked by composite eviction-risk score.