Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally
Buena Vista Eviction Risk: Moderate , Seminole
Tract 12103025111 · Pinellas, FL · pop 2,888 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
Census tract 12103025111 covers part of the Buena Vista area of Seminole, FL, and scores 4.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,888 residents. The severe-burden share is 53%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 60%
Tract context
Occupied units1,589
Renter share39.7%
SVI overall0.82
Poverty rate15.0%
Median income$44,343
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
84
th percentile
High
Within state
76
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Seminole and the region
Centroid at 27.8449, -82.7891 · click any tract to drill in
Why Buena Vista scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Seminole
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
15.0% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$1,396 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Seminole
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Seminole
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Seminole
5.3
How Buena Vista compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 82
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 75%Socioeconomic
- 51%Household composition
- 11%Racial/ethnic minority
- 99%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 93Total filings over 18 yrs
- 0.86%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.8%Peak (2007)
- 3Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 50% over the past 18 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 27Total filings 2020-21
- 0.4Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.3Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.38×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Buena Vista. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Buena Vista
81% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Pinellas County average of 53.4%. Pulling hardest the other way is eviction-process difficulty at 1.2/10.
Annualized rent equals 38% of average household income of $44,343, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10.
Disability prevalence runs 46.0% against 31.5% nationally. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.1/10. At $1,396 a month, rents run 18% under what the rest of Seminole commands.
It sits 1.0 points above the Pinellas County average of 3.8. Court records carry 93 eviction filings across 18 observed years.
Filings peaked in 2007 at 1.8% of renter households. In a typical year about 0.9% of renter households face a filing.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 12103025111
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12103025111?
Census tract 12103025111 in the Buena Vista neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12103025111?
Median gross rent is $1,396/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 81% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12103025111?
15.0% of residents in tract 12103025111 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,888.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12103025111?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 82th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 51th, minority 11th, housing 99th.
Q5
Is tract 12103025111 considered part of Buena Vista?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12103025111 fall within Buena Vista (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12103025111?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 93 eviction filings across 18 validated years in tract 12103025111 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.86% of renter households, peaking at 1.8% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12103025111 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.38× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12103025111 compare to Seminole overall?
Tract 12103025111 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Seminole at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Seminole; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Seminole
Top eight tracts in Seminole ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
Seminole Groves
4.7
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12103025116
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12103025114
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · FL
Seminole Village
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · FL
Seminole Groves
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · FL
Seminole
3.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · FL
Buena Vista
3.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · FL
Seminole Groves
3.1
/ 10 · Low
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