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Census Tract · Ranked #42,813 of 84,120 nationally

Winter Haven Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 12105014003 · Polk, FL · pop 3,579 · 22% of tract blocks fall in Winter Haven

Census tract 12105014003 covers part of Winter Haven, FL, and scores 4.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,579. Cost burden runs 68% here against 45.8% across Polk County.

Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 30% Stable renters 15% Owners 55%
Tract context
Occupied units1,484
Renter share44.9%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate16.7%
Median income$57,527

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
47 th percentile
Rank, 47th percentileLowHigh
#9 of 16 tracts In Winter Haven
Moderate
Within county
69 th percentile
Rank, 69th percentileLowHigh
#54 of 174 tracts In Polk
Elevated
Within state
65 th percentile
Rank, 65th percentileLowHigh
#1,779 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Elevated
National
49 th percentile
Rank, 49th percentileLowHigh
#42,813 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Winter Haven and the region

Centroid at 27.9877, -81.6749 · click any tract to drill in

Why Winter Haven scores 4.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Winter Haven
4.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.3
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
16.7% poverty · this tract
4.2
Supply constraint
$1,550 rent vs county FMR
6.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Winter Haven
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Winter Haven
7.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Winter Haven
7.8

How Winter Haven compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Winter Haven risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.4This tracttract 0140034.0Winter Havenparent city3.9Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 78

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 352Total filings over 17 yrs
  • 7.58%Avg annual filing rate
  • 9.6%Peak (2017)
  • 49Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 12105014003
Filings climbed 4,800% over the past 17 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Winter Haven

The clearest offset is eviction-process difficulty at 1.3/10. The severe-burden share is 25%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10.

Set annual rent against average income of $57,527 and the ratio lands at 32%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.4/10. Average gross rent is $1,550, 24% above the Winter Haven average.

The voucher gap is 15.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Court records carry 352 eviction filings across 17 observed years.

Filings peaked in 2017 at 9.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 7.6% of renter households face a filing.

That is riskier than roughly 49% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

It tracks the Polk County average of 3.9 closely. 45% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 12105014003

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12105014003?

Census tract 12105014003 in Winter Haven scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12105014003?

Median gross rent is $1,550/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12105014003?

16.7% of residents in tract 12105014003 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,579.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12105014003?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 58th, minority 63th, housing 87th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12105014003?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 352 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 12105014003 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.58% of renter households, peaking at 9.6% in 2017. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

How does tract 12105014003 compare to Winter Haven overall?

Tract 12105014003 scores 4.4/10, higher than the parent city of Winter Haven at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Winter Haven; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Winter Haven

Top eight tracts in Winter Haven ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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