Rockford Eviction Risk: Moderate

Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income of $35,972, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 2/10. 13% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

The poverty rate is 19%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Against the Winnebago County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.0 points. On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 3/10.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 16.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Rockford. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

On the national scale it lands near the 67th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. The legal-climate inputs (statute speed, court posture, rent-regulation exposure) come from Rockford eviction risk as a whole. Only the economic and supply signals are measured inside this tract. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. 46% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

Average gross rent is $1,038, close to the Rockford average.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.