Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #19,562 of 84,120 nationally
Twin Pines Eviction Risk: Moderate , Goshen
Tract 18039000201 · Elkhart County, IN · pop 3,200 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 18039000201 covers the Twin Pines neighborhood of Goshen, home to 3,200 residents. For landlords it grades 5.9/10, a moderate reading. It lands near the 72nd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 64% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 35% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,059 a month while the average household earns $41,557 a year, roughly 31% of income at the averages. About 30% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 70%
Tract context
Occupied units1,060
Renter share30.1%
SVI overall0.82
Poverty rate33.9%
Median income$41,557
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
96
th percentile
Very High
Within state
90
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Goshen and the region
Centroid at 41.6054, -85.8531 · click any tract to drill in
Why Twin Pines scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Goshen
4.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.6
State political climate
Indiana legislature & governorship
2.0
Economic stress
33.9% poverty · this tract
8.5
Supply constraint
$1,059 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Goshen
7.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Goshen
8.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Goshen
7.4
How Twin Pines compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 82
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 84%Socioeconomic
- 63%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 76%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Twin Pines. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 21.6%Housing insecurity
- 15.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 27.8%Food insecurity
- 17.4%SNAP enrollment
- 13.4%Transit barriers
- 20.2%No health insurance
- 20.7%Frequent mental distress
- 38.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Twin Pines
The heaviest input here is economic stress at 8.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Goshen eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Elkhart County average of 4.7 and above the Indiana statewide average of 4.7. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 21.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 15.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 82nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 18039000201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 18039000201?
Census tract 18039000201 in the Twin Pines neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 18039000201?
Median gross rent is $1,059/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 18039000201?
33.9% of residents in tract 18039000201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,200.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 18039000201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 82th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 63th, minority 70th, housing 76th.
Q5
Is tract 18039000201 considered part of Twin Pines?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 18039000201 fall within Twin Pines (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 18039000201 struggle to pay rent?
About 21.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 18039000201 compare to Goshen overall?
Tract 18039000201 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Goshen at 2.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Goshen eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Goshen
Top eight tracts in Goshen ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · IN
East Goshen
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IN
Terrace Park
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IN
Shanklin Millrace
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IN
West Goshen
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · IN
Twin Pines
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · IN
18039000400
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · IN
18039000301
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · IN
18039001302
3
/ 10 · Low
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