Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Hope Valley North Eviction Risk: Moderate , Durham
Tract 37063002015 · Durham County, NC · pop 5,044 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
With a score of 4.6/10, tract 37063002015 in the Hope Valley North area of Durham, NC reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,044. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.4/10.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32%
Stable renters 46%
Owners 22%
Tract context
Occupied units2,471
Renter share78.4%
SVI overall0.82
Poverty rate13.0%
Median income$64,763
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
64
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Durham and the region
Centroid at 35.9690, -78.9462 · click any tract to drill in
Why Hope Valley North scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Durham
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
North Carolina legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
13.0% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$1,563 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Durham
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Durham
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Durham
4.5
How Hope Valley North compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 82
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 67%Socioeconomic
- 57%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 95%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 5,000Total filings over 11 yrs
- 23.63%Avg annual filing rate
- 29.1%Peak (2011)
- 262Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 54% over the past 11 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Hope Valley North. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.1%Housing insecurity
- 8.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.8%Food insecurity
- 12.3%SNAP enrollment
- 9.1%Transit barriers
- 12.4%No health insurance
- 15.7%Frequent mental distress
- 30.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Hope Valley North
78% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10.
The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Court records carry 5,000 eviction filings across 11 observed years.
Filings peaked in 2011 at 29.1% of renter households. In a typical year about 23.6% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #39,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.4/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. 41% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
It tracks the Durham County average of 4.1 closely. Average gross rent is $1,563, close to the Durham average. Annual rent works out to 29% of average household income of $64,763.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 37063002015
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 37063002015?
Census tract 37063002015 in the Hope Valley North neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 37063002015?
Median gross rent is $1,563/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 37063002015?
13.0% of residents in tract 37063002015 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,044.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 37063002015?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 82th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 57th, minority 70th, housing 95th.
Q5
Is tract 37063002015 considered part of Hope Valley North?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 37063002015 fall within Hope Valley North (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 37063002015?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 5,000 eviction filings across 11 validated years in tract 37063002015 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 23.63% of renter households, peaking at 29.1% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 37063002015 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 37063002015 compare to Durham overall?
Tract 37063002015 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Durham at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Durham eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Durham
Top eight tracts in Durham ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · NC
Annie Day Shepard Dormitory
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NC
Annie Day Shepard Dormitory
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NC
Annie Day Shepard Dormitory
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NC
Hayti
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NC
Annie Day Shepard Dormitory
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NC
L L Wilkins
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NC
Duke Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NC
Keene
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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