Black Horse Run Eviction Risk: Lower , Durham

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Durham eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Durham County average of 5.9 and above the North Carolina statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 11.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 41st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.