1 census tracts · pop 9,548 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3/10
· range 3–3
Black Horse Run is a one-tract neighborhood of Durham, NC, population 9,548. The Eviction Risk Score is 3/10, in the Lower tier. Cost burden runs 54% against 29.4% citywide, putting Black Horse Run 24.3% over its own city.
Pulling the other way is economic stress, at 1.6/10. Well under the midpoint is rent-regulation exposure, at 2/10. The filing record is not thin: 229 evictions logged in this tract.
11% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. The worst year on record was 2013, when filings touched 12.7% of renter households.
Recent filings have not receded much: 8.2% in 2017 against a 12.7% peak. Among the 58 mapped neighborhoods of Durham, it ranks #44 by risk, the lower third.
Only 5% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. For a like-for-like read, Abron Drive and Brightwood Trails score within a fraction of it.
Poverty sits at 7%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
One tract means one number: 3/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
3
Lower
1 tracts · population-weighted
Black Horse Run vs DurhamHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority54%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport49%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Black Horse Run
Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
229Total filings (sum)
7.86%Avg annual filing rate
12.7%Peak year (2013)
8.17%Latest filed (2017)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Black Horse Run
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
11.4%Housing insecurity
7.6%Utility shutoff threat
13.5%Food insecurity
10.6%SNAP enrollment
10.0%No health insurance
30.8%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Black Horse Run
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Black Horse Run?
Black Horse Run scores 3/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Black Horse Run compare to Durham overall?
Black Horse Run scores 1.0 points lower than Durham overall (4/10). Renters spend 54% of income on rent vs 29% citywide.
Q3
What percentage of Black Horse Run residents are renters?
5% of Black Horse Run households are renter-occupied (vs 48% in Durham). The neighborhood has 9,548 residents.
Q4
Is Black Horse Run a high social-vulnerability area?
Black Horse Run sits in the 41st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q5
How safe is Black Horse Run for landlords?
Black Horse Run carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Durham as a whole (4/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q6
What is the demographic breakdown of Black Horse Run?
Black Horse Run has 8,290 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (63.5%), Black (non-Hispanic) (24.8%), Hispanic / Latino (8.3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
