Neighborhood · Durham, NC

Black Horse Run Eviction Risk: Lower

1 census tracts · pop 9,548 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 2.8/10 · range 2.8–2.8

Black Horse Run is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Durham with 1 census tract and a population of 9,548 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 2.8/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 54% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 11% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income).

Risk score

2.8

Lower

1 tracts · population-weighted

Black Horse Run vs Durham How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

53.7% +83%

Durham: 29.4%

Average gross rent

$0 -100%

Durham: $1,508

Average HH income

$103,814 +31%

Durham: $79,234

Poverty rate

6.5% -47%

Durham: 12.2%

Renter share

4.6% -90%

Durham: 47.7%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Black Horse Run and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 2.8–2.8

Why Black Horse Run scores 2.8

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.3–2.3 across tracts

2.3

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 8.1–8.1 across tracts

8.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts

7.5

Rent control risk

54% of income on rent · Range 2.0–2.0 across tracts

2.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 4.5–4.5 across tracts

4.5

Tenant organizing strength

5% renter households · Range 6.5–6.5 across tracts

6.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 4.5–4.5 across tracts

4.5

Economic stress

6.5% below poverty line · Range 1.6–1.6 across tracts

1.6

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 5.0–5.0 across tracts

5.0

Risk score comparison

Black Horse Run vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Census tracts

1 tracts in Black Horse Run

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
37063002100	2.8	9,548	54%	—

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 41

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 40%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 30%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 54%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 49%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Black Horse Run

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

229Total filings (sum)
7.86%Avg annual filing rate
12.7%Peak year (2013)
8.17%Latest filed (2017)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Black Horse Run

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

11.4%Housing insecurity
7.6%Utility shutoff threat
13.5%Food insecurity
10.6%SNAP enrollment
10.0%No health insurance
30.8%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Black Horse Run

What is the eviction-risk score for Black Horse Run?

Black Horse Run scores 2.8/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Black Horse Run compare to Durham overall?

Black Horse Run scores 0.6 points lower than Durham overall (3.4/10). Renters spend 54% of income on rent vs 29% citywide.

What percentage of Black Horse Run residents are renters?

5% of Black Horse Run households are renter-occupied (vs 48% in Durham). The neighborhood has 9,548 residents.

Is Black Horse Run a high social-vulnerability area?

Black Horse Run sits in the 41st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

How safe is Black Horse Run for landlords?

Black Horse Run carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (2.8/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Durham as a whole (3.4/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Black Horse Run?

Black Horse Run has 8,290 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (63.5%), Black (non-Hispanic) (24.8%), Hispanic / Latino (8.3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Black Horse Run

4.4 Horton Hills 2 tracts · pop 9,513 3.9 Crest Street 2 tracts · pop 6,841 5.2 Hillcrest 2 tracts · pop 8,879 5.2 Annie Day Shepard Dormitory 4 tracts · pop 11,781 3.6 Hope Valley North 2 tracts · pop 10,080 5.1 Keene 2 tracts · pop 13,770

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Durham

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Black Horse Run.

2.7 Abron Drive 1 tracts · pop 4,898 2.7 River's Edge 1 tracts · pop 5,204 2.9 Watts Hospital-Hillandale 1 tracts · pop 2,551 2.6 Waterford 1 tracts · pop 3,344 2.6 Maida Vale 1 tracts · pop 4,266 3 55 at the Park 1 tracts · pop 6,561

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