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Neighborhood · Ranked #47,371 of 84,120 nationally

Gateway Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bismarck

Tract 38015010400 · Burleigh County, ND · pop 4,204 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

Tract 38015010400 sits in the Gateway area of Bismarck eviction risk, ND, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.1/10. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8% Stable renters 14% Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units1,855
Renter share22.3%
SVI overall0.43
Poverty rate14.5%
Median income$80,015

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Gateway
Very Low
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 16 tracts In Bismarck
Elevated
Within county
72 th percentile
Rank, 72nd percentileLowHigh
#6 of 19 tracts In Burleigh County
Elevated
Within state
81 th percentile
Rank, 81st percentileLowHigh
#45 of 228 tracts In North Dakota
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bismarck and the region

Centroid at 46.8243, -100.7842 · click any tract to drill in

Why Gateway scores 4.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bismarck
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.0
State political climate
North Dakota legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
14.5% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$1,103 rent vs county FMR
5.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bismarck
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bismarck
1.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bismarck
1.5

How Gateway compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Gateway risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.1This tracttract 0104003.2Bismarckparent city3.6Countyavg tract in county3.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 43

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Gateway. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Gateway

On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 1/10. The severe-burden share is 21%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 1.5/10. SNAP participation runs 6.0% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 9.0% against 17.8% nationally.

At $1,103 a month, rents run 10% over what the rest of Bismarck commands. Nationally it ranks #47,371 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

At 22% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 4.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $80,015, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. 37% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

It tracks the Burleigh County average of 3.6 closely.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 38015010400

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 38015010400?

Census tract 38015010400 in the Gateway neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 38015010400?

Median gross rent is $1,103/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 38015010400?

14.5% of residents in tract 38015010400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,204.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 38015010400?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 27th, household 76th, minority 33th, housing 47th.
Q5

Is tract 38015010400 considered part of Gateway?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 38015010400 fall within Gateway (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 38015010400 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 38015010400 compare to Bismarck overall?

Tract 38015010400 scores 4.1/10, higher than the parent city of Bismarck at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bismarck eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bismarck

Top eight tracts in Bismarck ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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