Tract 51059452301 ·
Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,378 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
51059452301 is a census tract in the Accotink Heights area of Annandale, VA. It scores 5.9/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,378. 63% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Fairfax County average of 41.0%.
Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36%Stable renters 21%Owners 43%
Tract context
Occupied units1,409
Renter share57.2%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate18.4%
Median income$56,442
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Accotink Heights
Moderate
Within parent city
89th percentile
#2 of 10 tracts In Annandale
High
Within county
88th percentile
#33 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
High
Within state
93th percentile
#147 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Annandale and the region
Centroid at 38.8297, -77.2153 · click any tract to drill in
Why Accotink Heights scores 5.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Annandale
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
18.4% poverty · this tract
4.6
Supply constraint
$1,513 rent vs county FMR
1.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Annandale
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Annandale
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Annandale
6.8
How Accotink Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 78
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
80%Socioeconomic
73%Household composition
86%Racial/ethnic minority
55%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
113Total filings over 4 yrs
4.22%Avg annual filing rate
5.6%Peak (2016)
36Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year2011 to 2016
Filings climbed 44% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
15.2%Housing insecurity
9.2%Utility-shutoff threat
22.0%Food insecurity
16.2%SNAP enrollment
10.2%Transit barriers
14.2%No health insurance
14.3%Frequent mental distress
31.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Accotink Heights
33% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1.5/10. Set annual rent against average income of $56,442 and the ratio lands at 32%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
Running hot, local political climate reads 8.4/10. It sits 1.6 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10. At $1,513 a month, rents run 22% under what the rest of Annandale commands. The poverty rate is 18%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
The filing record is not thin: 113 evictions over 4 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2016, when 5.6% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 4.2% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #19,618 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059452301
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059452301?
Census tract 51059452301 in the Accotink Heights neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059452301?
Median gross rent is $1,513/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059452301?
18.4% of residents in tract 51059452301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,378.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059452301?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 73th, minority 86th, housing 55th.
Q5
Is tract 51059452301 considered part of Accotink Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059452301 fall within Accotink Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059452301?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 113 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059452301 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.22% of renter households, peaking at 5.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059452301 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059452301 compare to Annandale overall?
Tract 51059452301 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Annandale at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Annandale eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Annandale
Top eight tracts in Annandale ranked by composite eviction-risk score.