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Neighborhood · Ranked #82,639 of 84,120 nationally

Uniontown Eviction Risk: Lower , Centreville

Tract 51059491403 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,107 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

Census tract 51059491403 runs through the Uniontown neighborhood of Centreville. With 4,107 residents, it scores 5.6/10 for landlords. It lands near the 59th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

37% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 37% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $3,344 a month against an average household income of $250,001 a year, roughly 16% of income at the averages. Renters make up 5% of occupied homes.

Risk score
1.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2% Stable renters 3% Owners 95%
Tract context
Occupied units1,228
Renter share5.1%
SVI overall0.01
Poverty rate2.0%
Median income$250,001

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 4 tracts In Uniontown
Low
Within parent city
8 th percentile
Rank, 8th percentileLowHigh
#13 of 14 tracts In Centreville
Very Low
Within county
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#185 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Low
Within state
9 th percentile
Rank, 9th percentileLowHigh
#1,987 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Centreville and the region

Centroid at 38.8221, -77.4259 · click any tract to drill in

Why Uniontown scores 1.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Centreville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,344 rent vs county FMR
9.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Centreville
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Centreville
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Centreville
5.2

How Uniontown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Uniontown risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.11.1This tracttract 491403Centreville: 3.43.4Centrevilleparent cityCounty: 1.51.5Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 1

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 7Total filings over 3 yrs
  • 2.37%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.3%Peak (2011)
  • 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594914032011: 4 filings (4.26/100 renter HHs)2012: 2 filings (2.13/100 renter HHs)2013: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2016: 1 filings (0.72/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 75% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Uniontown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Uniontown

What moves this score most is supply constraint at 9.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Centreville eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 5.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 7 eviction filings here over 3 tracked years, with about 2.4% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 4.3% of renter households in 2011.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059491403

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491403?

Census tract 51059491403 in the Uniontown neighborhood scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059491403?

Median gross rent is $3,344/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491403?

2.0% of residents in tract 51059491403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,107.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491403?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 1th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 14th, minority 61th, housing 0th.
Q5

Is tract 51059491403 considered part of Uniontown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491403 fall within Uniontown (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491403?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 7 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 51059491403 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.37% of renter households, peaking at 4.3% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059491403 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059491403 compare to Centreville overall?

Tract 51059491403 scores 1.1/10, lower than the parent city of Centreville at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Centreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Centreville

Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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