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Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally

Uniontown Eviction Risk: Lower , Centreville

Tract 51059491404 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,464 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

With a score of 3.5/10, tract 51059491404 in the Uniontown area of Centreville, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,464 residents. The severe-burden share is 36%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2% Stable renters 3% Owners 95%
Tract context
Occupied units1,363
Renter share5.1%
SVI overall0.07
Poverty rate1.7%
Median income$166,117

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 4 tracts In Uniontown
Very Low
Within parent city
23 th percentile
Rank, 23rd percentileLowHigh
#11 of 14 tracts In Centreville
Low
Within county
26 th percentile
Rank, 26th percentileLowHigh
#203 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Low
Within state
35 th percentile
Rank, 35th percentileLowHigh
#1,425 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Centreville and the region

Centroid at 38.8131, -77.4384 · click any tract to drill in

Why Uniontown scores 3.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Centreville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,590 rent vs county FMR
6.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Centreville
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Centreville
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Centreville
5.2

How Uniontown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Uniontown risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.53.5This tracttract 491404Centreville: 4.14.1Centrevilleparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 7

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 29Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 3.58%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.8%Peak (2011)
  • 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594914042011: 9 filings (3.83/100 renter HHs)2012: 9 filings (3.83/100 renter HHs)2013: 5 filings (2.13/100 renter HHs)2016: 6 filings (4.51/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 33% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Uniontown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Uniontown

The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10.

SNAP participation runs 4.8% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 8.1% against 17.8% nationally. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 46% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Court records carry 29 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10. It sits 0.8 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3.

At $2,590 a month, rents run 13% over what the rest of Centreville commands. The worst year on record was 2011, when 3.8% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 3.6% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 31st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 5% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059491404

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491404?

Census tract 51059491404 in the Uniontown neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059491404?

Median gross rent is $2,590/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491404?

1.7% of residents in tract 51059491404 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,464.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491404?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 13th, minority 72th, housing 6th.
Q5

Is tract 51059491404 considered part of Uniontown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491404 fall within Uniontown (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491404?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 29 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491404 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.58% of renter households, peaking at 3.8% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059491404 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059491404 compare to Centreville overall?

Tract 51059491404 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Centreville at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Centreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Centreville

Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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