Neighborhood · Ranked #83,884 of 84,120 nationally

Potomac Green Eviction Risk: Lower , Ashburn

Tract 51107611016 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 4,624 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

The Potomac Green area of Ashburn anchors census tract 51107611016, which lands at 4.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 27% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 11% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a modest level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,750 a month while the average household earns $148,669 a year, roughly 22% of income at the averages. Renters make up 8% of occupied homes.

Risk score

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 1% Stable renters 7% Owners 92%

Tract context

Occupied units1,876

Renter share7.6%

SVI overall0.08

Poverty rate0.5%

Median income$148,669

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Ashburn and the region

Centroid at 39.0470, -77.4637 · click any tract to drill in

Why Potomac Green scores 1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Ashburn

6.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.3

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

0.5% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,750 rent vs county FMR

6.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from Ashburn

6.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.9

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Ashburn

6.8

Housing court bias

Inherited from Ashburn

4.5

How Potomac Green compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 8

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

2%Socioeconomic
51%Household composition
52%Racial/ethnic minority
8%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Potomac Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

4.5%Housing insecurity
2.9%Utility-shutoff threat
5.2%Food insecurity
3.3%SNAP enrollment
3.4%Transit barriers
5.0%No health insurance
10.4%Frequent mental distress
26.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Potomac Green

What moves this score most is supply constraint at 6.9/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Ashburn eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Loudoun County average of 5.2 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 4.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 2.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 8th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611016

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611016?

Census tract 51107611016 in the Potomac Green neighborhood scores 1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51107611016?

Median gross rent is $2,750/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 11% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611016?

0.5% of residents in tract 51107611016 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,624.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611016?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 8th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 51th, minority 52th, housing 8th.

Is tract 51107611016 considered part of Potomac Green?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611016 fall within Potomac Green (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51107611016 struggle to pay rent?

About 4.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51107611016 compare to Ashburn overall?

Tract 51107611016 scores 1/10, lower than the parent city of Ashburn at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ashburn eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Ashburn

Top eight tracts in Ashburn ranked by composite eviction-risk score.