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Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally

Regency at Ashburn Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 51107611018 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 3,794 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Census tract 51107611018 covers part of the Regency at Ashburn area of Ashburn, VA, and scores 5.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,794. 41% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 45% Stable renters 25% Owners 30%
Tract context
Occupied units2,313
Renter share70.2%
SVI overall0.55
Poverty rate11.5%
Median income$98,646

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Regency at Ashburn
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 9 tracts In Ashburn
Very High
Within county
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 75 tracts In Loudoun County
Very High
Within state
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#188 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Ashburn and the region

Centroid at 39.0326, -77.4431 · click any tract to drill in

Why Regency at Ashburn scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Ashburn
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.5% poverty · this tract
2.9
Supply constraint
$3,159 rent vs county FMR
8.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Ashburn
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Ashburn
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Ashburn
4.5

How Regency at Ashburn compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Regency at Ashburn risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.75.7This tracttract 611018Ashburn: 4.34.3Ashburnparent cityCounty: 4.14.1Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 55

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 30Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 3.26%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.3%Peak (2016)
  • 30Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Regency at Ashburn. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Regency at Ashburn

Against Loudoun County at 37.5%, 64% of renters here are cost-burdened. The voucher gap is 36.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. What pushes it up most is supply constraint at 8.7/10.

Set annual rent against average income of $98,646 and the ratio lands at 38%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. This is renter territory: 70% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. At $3,159 a month, rents run 29% over what the rest of Ashburn commands.

It sits 1.6 points above the Loudoun County average of 4.1. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 30 filings here across 1 tracked years.

Housing insecurity runs 6.1% against 14.2% nationally. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.9/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611018

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611018?

Census tract 51107611018 in the Regency at Ashburn neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51107611018?

Median gross rent is $3,159/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611018?

11.5% of residents in tract 51107611018 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,794.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611018?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 55th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 80th, minority 48th, housing 79th.
Q5

Is tract 51107611018 considered part of Regency at Ashburn?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611018 fall within Regency at Ashburn (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611018?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 30 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611018 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.26% of renter households, peaking at 3.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51107611018 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51107611018 compare to Ashburn overall?

Tract 51107611018 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Ashburn at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ashburn eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Ashburn

Top eight tracts in Ashburn ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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