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Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally

Ashbriar Eviction Risk: Moderate , Ashburn

Tract 51107611019 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 5,968 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Census tract 51107611019 covers part of the Ashbriar area of Ashburn, VA, and scores 4/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,968 residents. The severe-burden share is 37%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 5% Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,760
Renter share10.2%
SVI overall0.12
Poverty rate1.8%
Median income$213,587

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Ashbriar
Moderate
Within parent city
13 th percentile
Rank, 13th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 9 tracts In Ashburn
Very Low
Within county
47 th percentile
Rank, 47th percentileLowHigh
#40 of 75 tracts In Loudoun County
Moderate
Within state
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#1,032 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Ashburn and the region

Centroid at 39.0241, -77.4943 · click any tract to drill in

Why Ashbriar scores 4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Ashburn
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,875 rent vs county FMR
7.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Ashburn
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Ashburn
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Ashburn
4.5

How Ashbriar compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Ashbriar risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.04.0This tracttract 611019Ashburn: 4.34.3Ashburnparent cityCounty: 4.14.1Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 12

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 0.63%Avg annual filing rate
  • 0.6%Peak (2016)
  • 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Ashbriar

Against Loudoun County at 37.5%, 55% of renters here are cost-burdened. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. The voucher gap is 24.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

On the high side, supply constraint reads 7.4/10. Food insecurity runs 6.8% against 17.8% nationally.

Average gross rent is $2,875, 17% above the Ashburn average. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. Court records carry 1 eviction filings across 1 observed years.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.8% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Filings peaked in 2016 at 0.6% of renter households.

In a typical year about 0.6% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #48,956 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 10% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

Social vulnerability reads 2.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611019

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611019?

Census tract 51107611019 in the Ashbriar neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51107611019?

Median gross rent is $2,875/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611019?

1.8% of residents in tract 51107611019 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,968.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611019?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 4th, household 27th, minority 61th, housing 23th.
Q5

Is tract 51107611019 considered part of Ashbriar?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611019 fall within Ashbriar (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611019?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611019 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.63% of renter households, peaking at 0.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51107611019 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51107611019 compare to Ashburn overall?

Tract 51107611019 scores 4/10, lower than the parent city of Ashburn at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ashburn eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Ashburn

Top eight tracts in Ashburn ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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