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Neighborhood · Ranked #47,371 of 84,120 nationally

The Regency Eviction Risk: Moderate , Ashburn

Tract 51107611020 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 7,144 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

Census tract 51107611020 covers part of the The Regency area of Ashburn, VA, and scores 4.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 7,144 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19% Stable renters 36% Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units2,814
Renter share54.6%
SVI overall0.22
Poverty rate2.7%
Median income$131,404

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In The Regency
Moderate
Within parent city
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 9 tracts In Ashburn
High
Within county
72 th percentile
Rank, 72nd percentileLowHigh
#22 of 75 tracts In Loudoun County
Elevated
Within state
55 th percentile
Rank, 55th percentileLowHigh
#977 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Ashburn and the region

Centroid at 38.9989, -77.4598 · click any tract to drill in

Why The Regency scores 4.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Ashburn
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,263 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Ashburn
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Ashburn
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Ashburn
4.5

How The Regency compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
The Regency risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.14.1This tracttract 611020Ashburn: 4.34.3Ashburnparent cityCounty: 4.14.1Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 22

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 119Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 8.19%Avg annual filing rate
  • 8.2%Peak (2016)
  • 119Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in The Regency

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. 12% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. SNAP participation runs 5.1% against 15.2% nationally.

Food insecurity runs 8.3% against 17.8% nationally. Court records carry 119 eviction filings across 1 observed years. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.9/10.

Filings peaked in 2016 at 8.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 8.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 44th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3/10. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 34% of renters.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611020

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611020?

Census tract 51107611020 in the The Regency neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51107611020?

Median gross rent is $2,263/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611020?

2.7% of residents in tract 51107611020 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,144.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611020?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 22th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 11th, minority 74th, housing 48th.
Q5

Is tract 51107611020 considered part of The Regency?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611020 fall within The Regency (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611020?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 119 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611020 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.19% of renter households, peaking at 8.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51107611020 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51107611020 compare to Ashburn overall?

Tract 51107611020 scores 4.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Ashburn at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ashburn eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Ashburn

Top eight tracts in Ashburn ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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