Brightwood Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City
Tract 51153900410 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,891 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 51153900410 covers the Brightwood Forest neighborhood of Dale City in Virginia. Home to 5,891 residents, it scores 5.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 40% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 40% of renter households, a high level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,870 a month against an average household income of $81,125 a year, roughly 28% of income at the averages. About 64% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6195, -77.3046 · click any tract to drill in
Why Brightwood Forest scores 2.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Brightwood Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 67
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 60%Socioeconomic
- 47%Household composition
- 90%Racial/ethnic minority
- 64%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 178Total filings over 1 yrs
- 20.87%Avg annual filing rate
- 20.9%Peak (2016)
- 178Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.8%Housing insecurity
- 10.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.0%Food insecurity
- 13.3%SNAP enrollment
- 9.4%Transit barriers
- 9.7%No health insurance
- 16.4%Frequent mental distress
- 27.1%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Brightwood Forest
What moves this score most is eviction process difficulty at 3.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dale City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 67th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 178 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 20.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 20.9% of renter households in 2016.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
About tract 51153900410
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900410?
What is the average rent in tract 51153900410?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900410?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900410?
Is tract 51153900410 considered part of Brightwood Forest?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900410?
What share of households in tract 51153900410 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51153900410 compare to Dale City overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.