Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally
Brightwood Forest Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dale City
Tract 51153900410 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,891 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 4.5/10, tract 51153900410 in the Brightwood Forest area of Dale City, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 26%
Stable renters 39%
Owners 35%
Tract context
Occupied units2,096
Renter share64.3%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate7.8%
Median income$81,125
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
83
th percentile
High
Within county
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
66
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6195, -77.3046 · click any tract to drill in
Why Brightwood Forest scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.8% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$1,870 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2
How Brightwood Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 67
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 60%Socioeconomic
- 47%Household composition
- 90%Racial/ethnic minority
- 64%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 178Total filings over 1 yrs
- 20.87%Avg annual filing rate
- 20.9%Peak (2016)
- 178Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.8%Housing insecurity
- 10.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.0%Food insecurity
- 13.3%SNAP enrollment
- 9.4%Transit barriers
- 9.7%No health insurance
- 16.4%Frequent mental distress
- 27.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Brightwood Forest
Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.7/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.9/10. Severe burden reaches 12%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
The filing record is not thin: 178 evictions over 1 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2016 at 20.9% of renter households.
In a typical year about 20.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #41,206 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
40% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. It tracks the Prince William County average of 4.1 closely. Average gross rent is $1,870, close to the Dale City average.
Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $81,125. 64% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900410
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900410?
Census tract 51153900410 in the Brightwood Forest neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900410?
Median gross rent is $1,870/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900410?
7.8% of residents in tract 51153900410 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,891.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900410?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 47th, minority 90th, housing 64th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900410 considered part of Brightwood Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900410 fall within Brightwood Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900410?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 178 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900410 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 20.87% of renter households, peaking at 20.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153900410 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153900410 compare to Dale City overall?
Tract 51153900410 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Dale City at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Forestdale
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Evansdale
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Daleview Manor
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Silverdale
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Princedale
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Cloverdale
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Neabsco Hills
3.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Kerrydale
3
/ 10 · Low
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