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Neighborhood · Ranked #60,063 of 84,120 nationally

Brightwood Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City

Tract 51153900410 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,891 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Tract 51153900410 covers the Brightwood Forest neighborhood of Dale City in Virginia. Home to 5,891 residents, it scores 5.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 40% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 40% of renter households, a high level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,870 a month against an average household income of $81,125 a year, roughly 28% of income at the averages. About 64% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
2.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 26% Stable renters 39% Owners 35%
Tract context
Occupied units2,096
Renter share64.3%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate7.8%
Median income$81,125

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Brightwood Forest
Moderate
Within parent city
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 13 tracts In Dale City
High
Within county
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#13 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
High
Within state
52 th percentile
Rank, 52nd percentileLowHigh
#1,040 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dale City and the region

Centroid at 38.6195, -77.3046 · click any tract to drill in

Why Brightwood Forest scores 2.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.8% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$1,870 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2

How Brightwood Forest compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Brightwood Forest risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 2.92.9This tracttract 900410Dale City: 3.73.7Dale Cityparent cityCounty: 1.91.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 67

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 178Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 20.87%Avg annual filing rate
  • 20.9%Peak (2016)
  • 178Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Brightwood Forest

What moves this score most is eviction process difficulty at 3.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dale City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 67th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 178 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 20.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 20.9% of renter households in 2016.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900410

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900410?

Census tract 51153900410 in the Brightwood Forest neighborhood scores 2.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153900410?

Median gross rent is $1,870/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900410?

7.8% of residents in tract 51153900410 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,891.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900410?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 47th, minority 90th, housing 64th.
Q5

Is tract 51153900410 considered part of Brightwood Forest?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900410 fall within Brightwood Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900410?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 178 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900410 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 20.87% of renter households, peaking at 20.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153900410 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153900410 compare to Dale City overall?

Tract 51153900410 scores 2.9/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dale City

Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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