1 census tracts · pop 5,891 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.5/10
· range 4.5–4.5
Brightwood Forest is a one-tract neighborhood of Dale City, VA and houses 5,891 people. Scored across those inputs it reaches 4.5/10, placing it in the Moderate tier. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.7/10.
Running cool is economic stress, at 1.9/10. 40% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, above the Dale City rate of 32.6%. On the softer side is tenant-organizing strength, at 2/10.
The severe-burden share is 12%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. Court records for this tract carry 178 eviction filings.
The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 20.9% of renter households. Among the 12 mapped neighborhoods of Dale City, it ranks #3 by risk, the upper third. Judgments average 6.0% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order.
For a like-for-like read, Evansdale and Forestdale score within a fraction of it. Average gross rent runs $1,870, close to the Dale City average. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $81,125.
64% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Because the boundary contains one tract, 4.5/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
1 tracts · population-weighted
Brightwood Forest vs Dale CityHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority90%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport64%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Brightwood Forest
Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
178Total filings (sum)
20.87%Avg annual filing rate
20.9%Peak year (2016)
20.87%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Brightwood Forest
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
15.8%Housing insecurity
10.2%Utility shutoff threat
17.0%Food insecurity
13.3%SNAP enrollment
9.7%No health insurance
27.1%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Brightwood Forest
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Brightwood Forest?
Brightwood Forest scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Brightwood Forest compare to Dale City overall?
Brightwood Forest scores 1.1 points higher than Dale City overall (3.4/10). Renters spend 40% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $1,870 vs $1,876.
Q3
What is the average rent in Brightwood Forest?
Average gross rent in Brightwood Forest is $1,870/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Brightwood Forest residents are renters?
64% of Brightwood Forest households are renter-occupied (vs 21% in Dale City). The neighborhood has 5,891 residents.
Q5
Is Brightwood Forest a high social-vulnerability area?
Brightwood Forest sits in the 67th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
How safe is Brightwood Forest for landlords?
Brightwood Forest carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.5/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Dale City as a whole (3.4/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q7
What is the demographic breakdown of Brightwood Forest?
Brightwood Forest has 5,588 residents. Top groups: Black (non-Hispanic) (55.6%), White (non-Hispanic) (12.6%), Hispanic / Latino (12.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
