Within neighborhood
75
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
The Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lake Ridge
Tract 51153901209 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,564 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Tract 51153901209 sits in the The Heights area of Lake Ridge eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.9/10. Population here is 6,564. Cost burden runs 25% here against 43.3% across Prince William County.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 17%
Owners 77%
Tract context
Occupied units1,958
Renter share22.3%
SVI overall0.47
Poverty rate11.9%
Median income$105,493
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
90
th percentile
Very High
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
75
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region
Centroid at 38.6664, -77.2970 · click any tract to drill in
Why The Heights scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lake Ridge
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.9% poverty · this tract
3.0
Supply constraint
$2,049 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lake Ridge
4.2
How The Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 47
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 45%Socioeconomic
- 57%Household composition
- 75%Racial/ethnic minority
- 29%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 15Total filings over 1 yrs
- 3.09%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.1%Peak (2016)
- 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within The Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.2%Housing insecurity
- 8.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.6%Food insecurity
- 13.6%SNAP enrollment
- 9.0%Transit barriers
- 12.8%No health insurance
- 15.9%Frequent mental distress
- 32.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in The Heights
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. The severe-burden share is 15%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
On the high side, local political climate reads 7.4/10. The filing record is not thin: 15 evictions over 1 years of observation.
It sits 0.8 points above the Prince William County average of 4.1. On the softer side, economic stress reads 3/10. The worst year on record was 2016, when 3.1% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 3.1% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 59th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
At 22% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.2/10.
Average gross rent is $2,049, close to the Lake Ridge average. Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $105,493.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901209
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901209?
Census tract 51153901209 in the The Heights neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901209?
Median gross rent is $2,049/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 25% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901209?
11.9% of residents in tract 51153901209 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,564.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901209?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 57th, minority 75th, housing 29th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901209 considered part of The Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901209 fall within The Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901209?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 15 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901209 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.09% of renter households, peaking at 3.1% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901209 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901209 compare to Lake Ridge overall?
Tract 51153901209 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge
Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
The Heights
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Holly Ridge
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Windsor Park
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
51153901222
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
The Heights
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Highland Chase
3.3
/ 10 · Low
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