Within neighborhood
25
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #45,786 of 84,120 nationally
The Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lake Ridge
Tract 51153901223 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,194 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
Tract 51153901223 sits in the The Heights area of Lake Ridge eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.2/10. Population here is 6,194. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units2,208
Renter share20.1%
SVI overall0.37
Poverty rate6.8%
Median income$109,492
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
63
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
58
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region
Centroid at 38.6896, -77.2946 · click any tract to drill in
Why The Heights scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lake Ridge
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.8% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$1,953 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lake Ridge
4.2
How The Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 37
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 40%Socioeconomic
- 58%Household composition
- 71%Racial/ethnic minority
- 16%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 63Total filings over 1 yrs
- 14.62%Avg annual filing rate
- 14.6%Peak (2016)
- 63Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within The Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.5%Housing insecurity
- 6.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.3%Food insecurity
- 7.9%SNAP enrollment
- 6.5%Transit barriers
- 9.1%No health insurance
- 14.6%Frequent mental distress
- 26.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in The Heights
On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.7/10. Severe burden reaches 12%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
On the high side, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Court records carry 63 eviction filings across 1 observed years. SNAP participation runs 7.9% against 15.2% nationally.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 14.6% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 14.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 46% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 20% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.3/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
40% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. It tracks the Prince William County average of 4.1 closely. Average gross rent is $1,953, close to the Lake Ridge average.
Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $109,492.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901223
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901223?
Census tract 51153901223 in the The Heights neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901223?
Median gross rent is $1,953/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901223?
6.8% of residents in tract 51153901223 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,194.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901223?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 40th, household 58th, minority 71th, housing 16th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901223 considered part of The Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901223 fall within The Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901223?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 63 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901223 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.62% of renter households, peaking at 14.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901223 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901223 compare to Lake Ridge overall?
Tract 51153901223 scores 4.2/10, right in line with the parent city of Lake Ridge at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge
Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
The Heights
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Holly Ridge
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Windsor Park
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
51153901222
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
The Heights
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Highland Chase
3.3
/ 10 · Low
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