Neighborhood · Ranked #26,932 of 84,120 nationally

The Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lake Ridge

Tract 51153901208 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,519 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Eviction risk in The Heights in Lake Ridge centers on tract 51153901208, which scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier) and is home to 3,519 residents. That is riskier than about 82% of US census tracts.

60% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 38% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $3,501 a month while the average household earns $96,500 a year, roughly 44% of income at the averages. Renters make up 18% of occupied homes.

Risk score

5.8

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 11% Stable renters 7% Owners 82%

Tract context

Occupied units1,288

Renter share18.1%

SVI overall0.73

Poverty rate4.5%

Median income$96,500

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6846, -77.2770 · click any tract to drill in

Why The Heights scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lake Ridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

4.5% poverty · this tract

1.1

Supply constraint

$3,501 rent vs county FMR

10.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lake Ridge

4.2

How The Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 73

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

60%Socioeconomic
82%Household composition
61%Racial/ethnic minority
69%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

8Total filings over 1 yrs
2.14%Avg annual filing rate
2.1%Peak (2016)
8Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within The Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

9.1%Housing insecurity
5.8%Utility-shutoff threat
10.9%Food insecurity
8.1%SNAP enrollment
6.2%Transit barriers
9.7%No health insurance
13.0%Frequent mental distress
33.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in The Heights

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 9.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 73rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901208

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901208?

Census tract 51153901208 in the The Heights neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901208?

Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901208?

4.5% of residents in tract 51153901208 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,519.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901208?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 73th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 82th, minority 61th, housing 69th.

Is tract 51153901208 considered part of The Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901208 fall within The Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901208?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 8 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901208 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.14% of renter households, peaking at 2.1% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901208 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901208 compare to Lake Ridge overall?

Tract 51153901208 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge

Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.