Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #61,558 of 84,120 nationally
The Heights Eviction Risk: Lower , Lake Ridge
Tract 51153901224 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,276 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
Tract 51153901224 sits in the The Heights area of Lake Ridge eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.3/10. Population here is 4,276. What pushes it up most is supply constraint at 10/10.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 96%
Tract context
Occupied units1,364
Renter share4.4%
SVI overall0.16
Poverty rate4.3%
Median income$189,167
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
30
th percentile
Low
Within county
37
th percentile
Low
Within state
26
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region
Centroid at 38.6744, -77.3082 · click any tract to drill in
Why The Heights scores 3.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lake Ridge
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.3% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lake Ridge
5.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lake Ridge
4.2
How The Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 16
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 27%Socioeconomic
- 44%Household composition
- 65%Racial/ethnic minority
- 3%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 8Total filings over 1 yrs
- 7.55%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.6%Peak (2016)
- 8Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within The Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.5%Food insecurity
- 5.5%SNAP enrollment
- 5.1%Transit barriers
- 7.9%No health insurance
- 12.8%Frequent mental distress
- 24.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in The Heights
At $3,501 a month, rents run 72% over what the rest of Lake Ridge commands. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 9.1/10.
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.1/10. SNAP participation runs 5.5% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 8.5% against 17.8% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 8 evictions over 1 years of observation.
Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.8 points. Filings peaked in 2016 at 7.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 7.6% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 27% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 4% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 2.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901224
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901224?
Census tract 51153901224 in the The Heights neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901224?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 0% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901224?
4.3% of residents in tract 51153901224 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,276.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901224?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 16th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 27th, household 44th, minority 65th, housing 3th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901224 considered part of The Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901224 fall within The Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901224?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 8 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901224 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.55% of renter households, peaking at 7.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901224 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901224 compare to Lake Ridge overall?
Tract 51153901224 scores 3.3/10, lower than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge
Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
The Heights
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Holly Ridge
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Heights
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Windsor Park
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
51153901222
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Highland Chase
3.3
/ 10 · Low
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