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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Kerrydale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City

Tract 51153901211 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,792 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

51153901211 is a census tract in the Kerrydale area of Dale City, VA. It scores 3/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 42%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 6% Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units1,237
Renter share12.0%
SVI overall0.53
Poverty rate6.1%
Median income$139,238

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Kerrydale
Very High
Within parent city
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#10 of 13 tracts In Dale City
Low
Within county
5 th percentile
Rank, 5th percentileLowHigh
#88 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Very Low
Within state
18 th percentile
Rank, 18th percentileLowHigh
#1,798 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dale City and the region

Centroid at 38.6674, -77.3399 · click any tract to drill in

Why Kerrydale scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.1% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
$1,893 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2

How Kerrydale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Kerrydale risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.0This tracttract 9012113.4Dale Cityparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 53

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 12Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 4.94%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.9%Peak (2016)
  • 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Kerrydale. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Kerrydale

What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.5/10. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.7/10.

Against Prince William County at 43.3%, 50% of renters here are cost-burdened. It sits 1.1 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1.

Court records carry 12 eviction filings across 1 observed years. Adults with no health insurance runs 18.7% against 11.3% nationally.

The worst year on record was 2016, when 4.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 4.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

At 12% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $139,238, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901211

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901211?

Census tract 51153901211 in the Kerrydale neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901211?

Median gross rent is $1,893/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901211?

6.1% of residents in tract 51153901211 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,792.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901211?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 53th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 58th, minority 85th, housing 23th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901211 considered part of Kerrydale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901211 fall within Kerrydale (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901211?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901211 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.94% of renter households, peaking at 4.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901211 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901211 compare to Dale City overall?

Tract 51153901211 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dale City

Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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