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Neighborhood · Dale City, VA

Kerrydale Eviction Risk: Lower

2 census tracts · pop 12,361 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 1.6/10 · range 1.6–1.7

Kerrydale is a diverse neighborhood in Dale City with 2 census tracts and a population of 12,361 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 1.6/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 42% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 28% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,946/month sits 4% higher than the Dale City citywide average ($1,876).

Risk score
1.6
Lower
2 tracts · population-weighted
Kerrydale vs Dale City How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
42.1% +29%
Dale City: 32.6%
Average gross rent
$1,946 +4%
Dale City: $1,876
Average HH income
$136,107 +14%
Dale City: $118,975
Poverty rate
5.2% -22%
Dale City: 6.7%
Renter share
15.5% -25%
Dale City: 20.7%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Kerrydale and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 1.6–1.7

Why Kerrydale scores 1.6

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.4–6.4 across tracts
6.4
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 6.7–6.7 across tracts
6.7
Rent control risk
42% of income on rent · Range 1.7–1.7 across tracts
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.4–3.4 across tracts
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
16% renter households · Range 2.0–2.0 across tracts
2.0
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts
2.2
Economic stress
5.2% below poverty line · Range 1.2–1.5 across tracts
1.3
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.2–3.6 across tracts
3.4
Risk score comparison

Kerrydale vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Kerrydale score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Kerrydale: 1.61.6KerrydaleNeighborhoodParent city: 3.73.7Parent cityhost cityState: 3.83.8Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Kerrydale

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51153901211 1.7 4,792 50% $1,893
51153901212 1.6 7,569 37% $1,980
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 65

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 65%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 75%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 84%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 35%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Kerrydale

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 171Total filings (sum)
  • 18.59%Avg annual filing rate
  • 27.2%Peak year (2016)
  • 18.59%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Kerrydale

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Kerrydale

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Kerrydale?

Kerrydale scores 1.6/10 (Lower tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Kerrydale compare to Dale City overall?

Kerrydale scores 2.1 points lower than Dale City overall (3.7/10). Renters spend 42% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $1,946 vs $1,876.
Q3

What is the average rent in Kerrydale?

Average gross rent in Kerrydale is $1,946/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Kerrydale residents are renters?

16% of Kerrydale households are renter-occupied (vs 21% in Dale City). The neighborhood has 12,361 residents.
Q5

Is Kerrydale a high social-vulnerability area?

Kerrydale sits in the 65th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Kerrydale have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Kerrydale is census tract 51153901211 (score 1.7/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 1.6 to 1.7, a spread of 0.1 points.
Q7

How safe is Kerrydale for landlords?

Kerrydale carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (1.6/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Dale City as a whole (3.7/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Kerrydale?

Kerrydale has 12,056 residents (Diverse Neighborhood). Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (44.7%), White (non-Hispanic) (19.9%), Black (non-Hispanic) (18.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Kerrydale

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Dale City

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Kerrydale.

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