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Neighborhood · Ranked #78,212 of 84,120 nationally

Kerrydale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City

Tract 51153901212 · Prince William County, VA · pop 7,569 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

For landlords sizing up the Kerrydale neighborhood of Dale City, census tract 51153901212 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of $1/10. On the national scale it ranks #53,078 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

37% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 19% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,980 monthly, set against $134,125 in average yearly household income, roughly 18% of income at the averages. Renters make up 18% of occupied homes.

Risk score
1.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7% Stable renters 11% Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units2,193
Renter share17.7%
SVI overall0.73
Poverty rate4.6%
Median income$134,125

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Kerrydale
Very Low
Within parent city
8 th percentile
Rank, 8th percentileLowHigh
#12 of 13 tracts In Dale City
Very Low
Within county
49 th percentile
Rank, 49th percentileLowHigh
#48 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Moderate
Within state
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#1,644 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dale City and the region

Centroid at 38.6684, -77.3531 · click any tract to drill in

Why Kerrydale scores 1.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.6% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$1,980 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2

How Kerrydale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Kerrydale risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.61.6This tracttract 901212Dale City: 3.73.7Dale Cityparent cityCounty: 1.91.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 73

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 159Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 27.23%Avg annual filing rate
  • 27.2%Peak (2016)
  • 159Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Kerrydale. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Kerrydale

What moves this score most is supply constraint at 3.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dale City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 73rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 14.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901212

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901212?

Census tract 51153901212 in the Kerrydale neighborhood scores 1.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901212?

Median gross rent is $1,980/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901212?

4.6% of residents in tract 51153901212 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,569.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901212?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 73th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 69th, household 86th, minority 83th, housing 43th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901212 considered part of Kerrydale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901212 fall within Kerrydale (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901212?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 159 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901212 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 27.23% of renter households, peaking at 27.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901212 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901212 compare to Dale City overall?

Tract 51153901212 scores 1.6/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dale City

Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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