Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #61,558 of 84,120 nationally
Princedale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City
Tract 51153901230 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,116 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Tract 51153901230 sits in the Princedale area of Dale City eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.3/10. It is home to 4,116 residents. The severe-burden share is 41%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 6%
Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,162
Renter share10.4%
SVI overall0.26
Poverty rate10.0%
Median income$158,611
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
58
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
38
th percentile
Low
Within state
26
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6635, -77.3892 · click any tract to drill in
Why Princedale scores 3.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.0% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$2,450 rent vs county FMR
5.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2
How Princedale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 26
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 37%Socioeconomic
- 32%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 11%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 4Total filings over 1 yrs
- 3.74%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.7%Peak (2016)
- 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.4%Housing insecurity
- 8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.4%Food insecurity
- 11.3%SNAP enrollment
- 8.3%Transit barriers
- 10.8%No health insurance
- 15.9%Frequent mental distress
- 29.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Princedale
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Average gross rent is $2,450, 31% above the Dale City average.
Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.7/10. On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 4 filings here across 1 tracked years.
It sits 0.8 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1. Filings peaked in 2016 at 3.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 3.7% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 27th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 10% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.3/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.9 points cooler.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901230
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901230?
Census tract 51153901230 in the Princedale neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901230?
Median gross rent is $2,450/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901230?
10.0% of residents in tract 51153901230 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,116.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901230?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 26th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 37th, household 32th, minority 74th, housing 11th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901230 considered part of Princedale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901230 fall within Princedale (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901230?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 4 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901230 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.74% of renter households, peaking at 3.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901230 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901230 compare to Dale City overall?
Tract 51153901230 scores 3.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Dale City at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Forestdale
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Evansdale
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Brightwood Forest
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Daleview Manor
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Silverdale
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Cloverdale
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Neabsco Hills
3.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Kerrydale
3
/ 10 · Low
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