Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #73,892 of 84,120 nationally

Princedale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City

Tract 51153901230 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,116 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Census tract 51153901230 belongs to the Princedale area of Dale City, Virginia. It is home to 4,116 residents and scores 5.5/10, a moderate reading for landlords. That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

47% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 41% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,450 monthly, set against $158,611 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 10% of occupied homes.

Risk score
2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5% Stable renters 6% Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,162
Renter share10.4%
SVI overall0.26
Poverty rate10.0%
Median income$158,611

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Princedale
Moderate
Within parent city
58 th percentile
Rank, 58th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 13 tracts In Dale City
Elevated
Within county
65 th percentile
Rank, 65th percentileLowHigh
#33 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Elevated
Within state
34 th percentile
Rank, 34th percentileLowHigh
#1,449 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dale City and the region

Centroid at 38.6635, -77.3892 · click any tract to drill in

Why Princedale scores 2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.0% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$2,450 rent vs county FMR
5.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2

How Princedale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Princedale risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 2.02.0This tracttract 901230Dale City: 3.73.7Dale Cityparent cityCounty: 1.91.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 26

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 4Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 3.74%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.7%Peak (2016)
  • 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Princedale

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 5.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dale City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 26th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 13.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901230

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901230?

Census tract 51153901230 in the Princedale neighborhood scores 2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901230?

Median gross rent is $2,450/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901230?

10.0% of residents in tract 51153901230 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,116.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901230?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 26th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 37th, household 32th, minority 74th, housing 11th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901230 considered part of Princedale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901230 fall within Princedale (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901230?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 4 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901230 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.74% of renter households, peaking at 3.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901230 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901230 compare to Dale City overall?

Tract 51153901230 scores 2/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dale City

Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related