Neighborhood · Ranked #48,083 of 84,120 nationally

Dowden Terrace Eviction Risk: Lower , Alexandria

Tract 51510200104 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 4,311 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

For landlords sizing up Dowden Terrace in Alexandria, census tract 51510200104 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 6.5/10. It lands near the 86th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 59% of renter households, a severe level, and 22% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,183 a month against an average household income of $80,064 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. About 100% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

3.6

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 59% Stable renters 41% Owners 0%

Tract context

Occupied units1,605

Renter share100.0%

SVI overall0.87

Poverty rate17.6%

Median income$80,064

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8297, -77.1227 · click any tract to drill in

Why Dowden Terrace scores 3.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Alexandria

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

17.6% poverty · this tract

4.4

Supply constraint

$2,183 rent vs county FMR

4.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Alexandria

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Alexandria

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Alexandria

5.5

How Dowden Terrace compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

85%Socioeconomic
82%Household composition
85%Racial/ethnic minority
71%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Dowden Terrace. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

20.8%Housing insecurity
12.8%Utility-shutoff threat
24.7%Food insecurity
20.3%SNAP enrollment
13.1%Transit barriers
17.1%No health insurance
19.7%Frequent mental distress
31.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Dowden Terrace

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 20.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and Black and ranks around the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510200104

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200104?

Census tract 51510200104 in the Dowden Terrace neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51510200104?

Median gross rent is $2,183/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200104?

17.6% of residents in tract 51510200104 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,311.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200104?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 82th, minority 85th, housing 71th.

Is tract 51510200104 considered part of Dowden Terrace?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200104 fall within Dowden Terrace (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51510200104 struggle to pay rent?

About 20.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51510200104 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510200104 scores 3.6/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.