Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally
Dowden Terrace Eviction Risk: Elevated , Alexandria
Tract 51510200104 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 4,311 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Tract 51510200104 sits in the Dowden Terrace area of Alexandria eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 7.3/10. Population here is 4,311. 59% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Alexandria City average of 41.2%.
Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 59%
Stable renters 41%
Owners 0%
Tract context
Occupied units1,605
Renter share100.0%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate17.6%
Median income$80,064
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
89
th percentile
High
Within county
87
th percentile
High
Within state
99
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8297, -77.1227 · click any tract to drill in
Why Dowden Terrace scores 7.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.6% poverty · this tract
4.4
Supply constraint
$2,183 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Dowden Terrace compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 87
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 85%Socioeconomic
- 82%Household composition
- 85%Racial/ethnic minority
- 71%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Dowden Terrace. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.8%Housing insecurity
- 12.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 24.7%Food insecurity
- 20.3%SNAP enrollment
- 13.1%Transit barriers
- 17.1%No health insurance
- 19.7%Frequent mental distress
- 31.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Dowden Terrace
This is renter territory: 100% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.4/10. The severe-burden share is 22%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Set annual rent against average income of $80,064 and the ratio lands at 33%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.1/10.
It sits 1.6 points above the Alexandria City average of 5.7. On the high side, local political climate reads 8/10.
That is riskier than roughly 87% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.8/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.1 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $2,183, close to the Alexandria average.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200104
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200104?
Census tract 51510200104 in the Dowden Terrace neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200104?
Median gross rent is $2,183/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200104?
17.6% of residents in tract 51510200104 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,311.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200104?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 82th, minority 85th, housing 71th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200104 considered part of Dowden Terrace?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200104 fall within Dowden Terrace (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200104 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200104 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200104 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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