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Neighborhood · Ranked #72,539 of 84,120 nationally

Brad Lee Eviction Risk: Lower , Alexandria

Tract 51510200201 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,718 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 51510200201 (the Brad Lee area of Alexandria, Virginia) comes in at 6.1/10, the Elevated tier. That is riskier than about 76% of US census tracts.

About 48% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,176 monthly, set against $110,364 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 62% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
2.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 30% Stable renters 33% Owners 37%
Tract context
Occupied units1,787
Renter share62.1%
SVI overall0.45
Poverty rate4.6%
Median income$110,364

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Brad Lee
Moderate
Within parent city
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#23 of 48 tracts In Alexandria
Moderate
Within county
49 th percentile
Rank, 49th percentileLowHigh
#25 of 48 tracts In Alexandria city
Moderate
Within state
36 th percentile
Rank, 36th percentileLowHigh
#1,393 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8273, -77.0987 · click any tract to drill in

Why Brad Lee scores 2.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.6% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$2,176 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5

How Brad Lee compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Brad Lee risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 2.12.1This tracttract 200201Alexandria: 4.64.6Alexandriaparent cityCounty: 2.32.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 45

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Brad Lee

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 45th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 9.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510200201

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200201?

Census tract 51510200201 in the Brad Lee neighborhood scores 2.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51510200201?

Median gross rent is $2,176/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200201?

4.6% of residents in tract 51510200201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,718.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200201?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 45th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 36th, household 15th, minority 61th, housing 75th.
Q5

Is tract 51510200201 considered part of Brad Lee?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200201 fall within Brad Lee (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51510200201 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51510200201 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510200201 scores 2.1/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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