Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally
Seminary Valley Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria
Tract 51510200305 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 2,931 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 51510200305 sits in the Seminary Valley area of Alexandria eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.7/10. Population here is 2,931. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.1/10.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16%
Stable renters 35%
Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units1,296
Renter share51.2%
SVI overall0.53
Poverty rate4.3%
Median income$101,080
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
57
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
91
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8144, -77.1213 · click any tract to drill in
Why Seminary Valley scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.3% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$1,964 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Seminary Valley compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 53
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 28%Socioeconomic
- 64%Household composition
- 81%Racial/ethnic minority
- 63%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Seminary Valley. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.2%Housing insecurity
- 7.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.0%Food insecurity
- 9.2%SNAP enrollment
- 6.8%Transit barriers
- 8.1%No health insurance
- 14.2%Frequent mental distress
- 26.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Seminary Valley
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Against Alexandria City at 41.2%, 32% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Nationally it ranks #21,564 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 5.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter.
Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Alexandria City average of 5.7 closely. Average gross rent is $1,964, close to the Alexandria average.
Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $101,080. 51% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200305
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200305?
Census tract 51510200305 in the Seminary Valley neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200305?
Median gross rent is $1,964/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 32% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200305?
4.3% of residents in tract 51510200305 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,931.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200305?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 53th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 28th, household 64th, minority 81th, housing 63th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200305 considered part of Seminary Valley?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200305 fall within Seminary Valley (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200305 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200305 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200305 scores 5.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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