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Neighborhood · Ranked #71,178 of 84,120 nationally

Seminary Valley Eviction Risk: Lower , Alexandria

Tract 51510200305 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 2,931 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Census tract 51510200305 sits in the Seminary Valley neighborhood of Alexandria eviction risk, Virginia eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 5.5/10. On the national scale it ranks #37,665 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

32% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 14% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,964 a month against an average household income of $101,080 a year, roughly 23% of income at the averages. About 51% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
2.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 35% Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units1,296
Renter share51.2%
SVI overall0.53
Poverty rate4.3%
Median income$101,080

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Seminary Valley
Very High
Within parent city
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#21 of 48 tracts In Alexandria
Elevated
Within county
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#21 of 48 tracts In Alexandria city
Elevated
Within state
39 th percentile
Rank, 39th percentileLowHigh
#1,336 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8144, -77.1213 · click any tract to drill in

Why Seminary Valley scores 2.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.3% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$1,964 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5

How Seminary Valley compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Seminary Valley risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 2.22.2This tracttract 200305Alexandria: 4.64.6Alexandriaparent cityCounty: 2.32.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 53

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Seminary Valley. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Seminary Valley

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 11.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 53rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510200305

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200305?

Census tract 51510200305 in the Seminary Valley neighborhood scores 2.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51510200305?

Median gross rent is $1,964/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 32% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200305?

4.3% of residents in tract 51510200305 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,931.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200305?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 53th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 28th, household 64th, minority 81th, housing 63th.
Q5

Is tract 51510200305 considered part of Seminary Valley?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200305 fall within Seminary Valley (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51510200305 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51510200305 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510200305 scores 2.2/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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