Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #77,226 of 84,120 nationally
Seminary Valley Eviction Risk: Lower , Alexandria
Tract 51510200302 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 4,767 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Tract 51510200302 covers the Seminary Valley neighborhood of Alexandria in Virginia. Home to 4,767 residents, it scores 6.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 76% of US census tracts.
About 46% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 16% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,383 a month while the average household earns $161,792 a year, roughly 18% of income at the averages. About 40% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 22%
Owners 60%
Tract context
Occupied units1,381
Renter share39.9%
SVI overall0.66
Poverty rate4.5%
Median income$161,792
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
21
th percentile
Low
Within county
28
th percentile
Low
Within state
27
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8196, -77.1174 · click any tract to drill in
Why Seminary Valley scores 1.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.5% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$2,383 rent vs county FMR
5.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Seminary Valley compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 66
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 57%Socioeconomic
- 86%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 43%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Seminary Valley. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.2%Housing insecurity
- 7.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.0%Food insecurity
- 10.1%SNAP enrollment
- 7.6%Transit barriers
- 11.7%No health insurance
- 15.4%Frequent mental distress
- 27.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Seminary Valley
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 66th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
In CDC survey modeling, about 12.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200302
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200302?
Census tract 51510200302 in the Seminary Valley neighborhood scores 1.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200302?
Median gross rent is $2,383/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200302?
4.5% of residents in tract 51510200302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,767.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200302?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 57th, household 86th, minority 73th, housing 43th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200302 considered part of Seminary Valley?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200302 fall within Seminary Valley (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200302 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200302 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200302 scores 1.7/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.2
/ 10 · Low
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