Neighborhood · Ranked #79,124 of 84,120 nationally

Jefferson Park Eviction Risk: Lower , Alexandria

Tract 51510200900 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 4,974 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Tract 51510200900, home to 4,974 residents in the Jefferson Park area of Alexandria, scores 5.1/10 for landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 40th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

15% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a modest level, and 15% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,228 monthly, set against $250,001 in average yearly household income, roughly 11% of income at the averages. Renters make up 12% of occupied homes.

Risk score

1.5

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 2% Stable renters 10% Owners 88%

Tract context

Occupied units1,815

Renter share12.2%

SVI overall0.13

Poverty rate1.8%

Median income$250,001

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8260, -77.0754 · click any tract to drill in

Why Jefferson Park scores 1.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Alexandria

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

1.8% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,228 rent vs county FMR

4.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Alexandria

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Alexandria

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Alexandria

5.5

How Jefferson Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 13

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

3%Socioeconomic
11%Household composition
31%Racial/ethnic minority
55%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

4.4%Housing insecurity
2.9%Utility-shutoff threat
4.3%Food insecurity
2.8%SNAP enrollment
3.1%Transit barriers
3.8%No health insurance
11.6%Frequent mental distress
19.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Jefferson Park

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 4.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 2.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 13th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510200900

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200900?

Census tract 51510200900 in the Jefferson Park neighborhood scores 1.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51510200900?

Median gross rent is $2,228/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 15% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200900?

1.8% of residents in tract 51510200900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,974.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200900?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 3th, household 11th, minority 31th, housing 55th.

Is tract 51510200900 considered part of Jefferson Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200900 fall within Jefferson Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51510200900 struggle to pay rent?

About 4.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51510200900 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510200900 scores 1.5/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.