Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #76,223 of 84,120 nationally
Lynhaven Eviction Risk: Lower , Alexandria
Tract 51510201204 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,012 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Here is how census tract 51510201204, in Lynhaven in Alexandria eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 5.6/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 3,012. That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
34% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 19% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,844 monthly, set against $125,991 in average yearly household income, roughly 18% of income at the averages. Renters make up 44% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units1,460
Renter share43.9%
SVI overall0.16
Poverty rate3.6%
Median income$125,991
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
38
th percentile
Low
Within county
32
th percentile
Low
Within state
29
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8341, -77.0560 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lynhaven scores 1.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,844 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Lynhaven compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 16
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 15%Socioeconomic
- 8%Household composition
- 62%Racial/ethnic minority
- 34%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lynhaven. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.2%Housing insecurity
- 5.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.3%Food insecurity
- 6.6%SNAP enrollment
- 5.6%Transit barriers
- 7.8%No health insurance
- 15.0%Frequent mental distress
- 22.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lynhaven
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 16th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
In CDC survey modeling, about 9.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510201204
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510201204?
Census tract 51510201204 in the Lynhaven neighborhood scores 1.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510201204?
Median gross rent is $1,844/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510201204?
3.6% of residents in tract 51510201204 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,012.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510201204?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 16th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 15th, household 8th, minority 62th, housing 34th.
Q5
Is tract 51510201204 considered part of Lynhaven?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510201204 fall within Lynhaven (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510201204 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510201204 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510201204 scores 1.8/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
3.2
/ 10 · Low
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