Neighborhood · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally
Lynhaven Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria
Tract 51510201204 ·
Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,012 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Tract 51510201204 sits in the Lynhaven area of Alexandria eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5/10. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%Stable renters 29%Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units1,460
Renter share43.9%
SVI overall0.16
Poverty rate3.6%
Median income$125,991
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0th percentile
#2 of 2 tracts In Lynhaven
Very Low
Within parent city
28th percentile
#35 of 48 tracts In Alexandria
Low
Within county
28th percentile
#35 of 48 tracts In Alexandria city
Low
Within state
77th percentile
#508 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8341, -77.0560 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lynhaven scores 5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,844 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Lynhaven compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 16
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
9.2%Housing insecurity
5.5%Utility-shutoff threat
9.3%Food insecurity
6.6%SNAP enrollment
5.6%Transit barriers
7.8%No health insurance
15.0%Frequent mental distress
22.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lynhaven
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. 19% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. Against Alexandria City at 41.2%, around a third of renters here are cost-burdened.
SNAP participation runs 6.6% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 9.3% against 17.8% nationally. Against the Alexandria City average of 5.7, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points.
At $1,844 a month, rents run 12% under what the rest of Alexandria commands. Nationally it ranks #32,842 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.4/10. Rent consumes only 18% of average household income of $125,991, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510201204
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510201204?
Census tract 51510201204 in the Lynhaven neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510201204?
Median gross rent is $1,844/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510201204?
3.6% of residents in tract 51510201204 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,012.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510201204?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 16th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 15th, household 8th, minority 62th, housing 34th.
Q5
Is tract 51510201204 considered part of Lynhaven?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510201204 fall within Lynhaven (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510201204 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510201204 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510201204 scores 5/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.