Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally
Oakville Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria
Tract 51510201803 ·
Alexandria city, VA · pop 2,375 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
51510201803 is a census tract in the Oakville area of Alexandria, VA. It scores 4.8/10 for landlords. It is home to 2,375 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%Stable renters 20%Owners 66%
Tract context
Occupied units1,295
Renter share33.1%
SVI overall0.01
Poverty rate2.0%
Median income$162,596
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0th percentile
#4 of 4 tracts In Oakville
Very Low
Within parent city
13th percentile
#42 of 48 tracts In Alexandria
Very Low
Within county
17th percentile
#40 of 48 tracts In Alexandria city
Very Low
Within state
73th percentile
#589 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8194, -77.0462 · click any tract to drill in
Why Oakville scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,305 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Oakville compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 1
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
5.5%Housing insecurity
3.5%Utility-shutoff threat
4.8%Food insecurity
3.2%SNAP enrollment
3.6%Transit barriers
4.2%No health insurance
13.3%Frequent mental distress
17.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Oakville
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. 17% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Food insecurity runs 4.8% against 17.8% nationally.
On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. Housing insecurity runs 5.5% against 14.2% nationally. It sits 0.9 points below the Alexandria City average of 5.7.
Average gross rent is $2,305, 10% above the Alexandria average. Nationally it ranks #35,669 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Social vulnerability reads 1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $162,596, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 41% of renters.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510201803
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510201803?
Census tract 51510201803 in the Oakville neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510201803?
Median gross rent is $2,305/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510201803?
2.0% of residents in tract 51510201803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,375.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510201803?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 1th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 0th, household 0th, minority 40th, housing 29th.
Q5
Is tract 51510201803 considered part of Oakville?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510201803 fall within Oakville (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510201803 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510201803 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510201803 scores 4.8/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.