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Neighborhood · San Antonio, TX

Elm Creek Eviction Risk: Moderate

3 census tracts · pop 12,424 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.2/10 · range 2.7–4.5

Elm Creek is a hispanic-white neighborhood in San Antonio with 3 census tracts and a population of 12,424 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 4.2/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 46% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 22% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,065/month sits 20% lower than the San Antonio citywide average ($1,324).

Risk score
4.2
Moderate
3 tracts · population-weighted
Elm Creek vs San Antonio How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
46.4% +45%
San Antonio: 32.0%
Average gross rent
$1,065 -20%
San Antonio: $1,324
Average HH income
$67,340 +7%
San Antonio: $62,917
Poverty rate
10.0% -42%
San Antonio: 17.1%
Renter share
58.7% +23%
San Antonio: 47.8%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Elm Creek and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 2.7–4.5

Why Elm Creek scores 4.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts
1.5
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.9–5.9 across tracts
5.9
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 5.8–5.8 across tracts
5.8
Rent control risk
46% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.5–3.5 across tracts
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
59% renter households · Range 4.0–4.0 across tracts
4.0
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts
3.0
Economic stress
10.0% below poverty line · Range 1.2–2.9 across tracts
2.5
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.1–5.0 across tracts
3.7
Risk score comparison

Elm Creek vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Elm Creek score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Elm Creek: 4.24.2Elm CreekNeighborhoodParent city: 2.82.8Parent cityhost cityState: 2.62.6Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Elm Creek?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 1.8 points from 2.7 to 4.5. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

3 tracts in Elm Creek

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
48029181302 4.5 5,892 49% $1,219
48029181301 4.4 4,463 64% $1,356
48029191505 2.7 2,069 0%
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 50

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 59%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 46%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 75%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 33%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Elm Creek

Aggregated across 3 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 704Total filings (sum)
  • 2.41%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.9%Peak year (2008)
  • 3.95%Latest filed (2008)
Frequently asked

About Elm Creek

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Elm Creek?

Elm Creek scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Elm Creek compare to San Antonio overall?

Elm Creek scores 1.4 points higher than San Antonio overall (2.8/10). Renters spend 46% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,065 vs $1,324.
Q3

What is the average rent in Elm Creek?

Average gross rent in Elm Creek is $1,065/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Elm Creek residents are renters?

59% of Elm Creek households are renter-occupied (vs 48% in San Antonio). The neighborhood has 12,424 residents.
Q5

Is Elm Creek a high social-vulnerability area?

Elm Creek sits in the 50th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Elm Creek have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Elm Creek is census tract 48029181302 (score 4.5/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 2.7 to 4.5, a spread of 1.8 points.
Q7

How safe is Elm Creek for landlords?

Elm Creek carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.2/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to San Antonio as a whole (2.8/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Elm Creek?

Elm Creek has 12,227 residents (Hispanic-White Neighborhood). Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (49.5%), White (non-Hispanic) (40.9%), Black (non-Hispanic) (3.7%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Elm Creek

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside San Antonio

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Elm Creek.

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