1 census tracts · pop 3,398 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3/10
· range 3–3
Heron Bay is a one-tract neighborhood of Pearland, TX and houses 3,398 people. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 3/10, in the Lower tier. The voucher gap is 40.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears.
35% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. Pulling the other way is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10. Well under the midpoint is economic stress, at 1/10.
Running hot is supply constraint at 9/10. Against a Pearland baseline of 30.4%, 35% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
Among the 17 mapped neighborhoods of Pearland, it ranks #8 by risk, the middle third. At 8% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out.
The closest comparables inside the same city are Crystal Lake and Shadow Creek Ranch. Rent takes 13% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market.
Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Average gross rent runs $1,764, close to the Pearland average.
One tract means one number: 3/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
3
Lower
1 tracts · population-weighted
Heron Bay vs PearlandHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority75%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport12%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Frequently asked
About Heron Bay
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Heron Bay?
Heron Bay scores 3/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Heron Bay compare to Pearland overall?
Heron Bay scores 0.2 points lower than Pearland overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 35% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $1,764 vs $1,860.
Q3
What is the average rent in Heron Bay?
Average gross rent in Heron Bay is $1,764/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Heron Bay residents are renters?
8% of Heron Bay households are renter-occupied (vs 24% in Pearland). The neighborhood has 3,398 residents.
Q5
Is Heron Bay a high social-vulnerability area?
Heron Bay sits in the 19th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
How safe is Heron Bay for landlords?
Heron Bay carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Pearland as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q7
What is the demographic breakdown of Heron Bay?
Heron Bay has 4,115 residents. Top groups: Asian (non-Hispanic) (39.2%), White (non-Hispanic) (33.4%), Black (non-Hispanic) (15.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
