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Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally

Denton Square Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 48121021301 · Denton, TX · pop 4,335 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi

48121021301 is a census tract in the Denton Square area of Denton, TX. It scores 5.2/10 for landlords. Cost burden runs 65% here against 45.5% across Denton County.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 65% Stable renters 35% Owners 0%
Tract context
Occupied units1,564
Renter share100.0%
SVI overall0.74
Poverty rate37.2%
Median income$31,765

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
29 th percentile
Rank, 29th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 8 tracts In Denton Square
Low
Within parent city
58 th percentile
Rank, 58th percentileLowHigh
#15 of 34 tracts In Denton
Elevated
Within county
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#22 of 193 tracts In Denton
High
Within state
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#375 of 6,884 tracts In Texas
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Denton and the region

Centroid at 33.1984, -97.1291 · click any tract to drill in

Why Denton Square scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Denton
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.6
State political climate
Texas legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
37.2% poverty · this tract
9.3
Supply constraint
$1,242 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Denton
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Denton
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Denton
3.5

How Denton Square compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Denton Square risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.25.2This tracttract 021301Denton: 3.83.8Dentonparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 74

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,480Total filings over 13 yrs
  • 9.06%Avg annual filing rate
  • 15.8%Peak (2012)
  • 138Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 481210213012001: 110 filings (11.58/100 renter HHs)2002: 109 filings (11.47/100 renter HHs)2003: 92 filings (9.68/100 renter HHs)2004: 63 filings (6.63/100 renter HHs)2005: 40 filings (4.85/100 renter HHs)2006: 40 filings (4.85/100 renter HHs)2007: 43 filings (5.21/100 renter HHs)2010: 159 filings (9.96/100 renter HHs)2011: 136 filings (9.02/100 renter HHs)2012: 238 filings (15.78/100 renter HHs)2013: 156 filings (10.34/100 renter HHs)2015: 156 filings (10.34/100 renter HHs)2016: 138 filings (8.12/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 25% over the past 13 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 840Total filings 2020-21
  • 10.9Avg monthly (observed)
  • 10.2Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 1.07×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-05-01
Monthly eviction filings vs pre-pandemic baseline2020-01-01: 25 filings (2.33× baseline)2020-02-01: 21 filings (2.80× baseline)2020-03-01: 9 filings (0.75× baseline)2020-04-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-05-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-06-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-07-01: 4 filings (0.40× baseline)2020-08-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-09-01: 2 filings (0.23× baseline)2020-10-01: 5 filings (0.38× baseline)2020-11-01: 2 filings (0.12× baseline)2020-12-01: 8 filings (0.84× baseline)2021-01-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-02-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-03-01: 5 filings (0.42× baseline)2021-04-01: 13 filings (1.30× baseline)2021-05-01: 3 filings (0.20× baseline)2021-06-01: 6 filings (0.47× baseline)2021-07-01: 3 filings (0.30× baseline)2021-08-01: 1 filings (0.19× baseline)2021-09-01: 4 filings (0.46× baseline)2021-10-01: 9 filings (0.68× baseline)2021-11-01: 3 filings (0.18× baseline)2021-12-01: 11 filings (1.16× baseline)2022-01-01: 9 filings (0.84× baseline)2022-02-01: 10 filings (1.33× baseline)2022-03-01: 28 filings (2.33× baseline)2022-04-01: 13 filings (1.30× baseline)2022-05-01: 11 filings (0.75× baseline)2022-06-01: 13 filings (1.02× baseline)2022-07-01: 11 filings (1.10× baseline)2022-08-01: 10 filings (1.90× baseline)2022-09-01: 11 filings (1.26× baseline)2022-10-01: 20 filings (1.51× baseline)2022-11-01: 11 filings (0.68× baseline)2022-12-01: 19 filings (2.00× baseline)2023-01-01: 18 filings (1.67× baseline)2023-02-01: 3 filings (0.40× baseline)2023-03-01: 19 filings (1.58× baseline)2023-04-01: 15 filings (1.50× baseline)2023-05-01: 14 filings (0.95× baseline)2023-06-01: 17 filings (1.33× baseline)2023-07-01: 14 filings (1.40× baseline)2023-08-01: 6 filings (1.14× baseline)2023-09-01: 11 filings (1.26× baseline)2023-10-01: 21 filings (1.58× baseline)2023-11-01: 12 filings (0.74× baseline)2023-12-01: 13 filings (1.37× baseline)2024-01-01: 16 filings (1.49× baseline)2024-02-01: 19 filings (2.53× baseline)2024-03-01: 13 filings (1.08× baseline)2024-04-01: 21 filings (2.10× baseline)2024-05-01: 19 filings (1.29× baseline)2024-06-01: 25 filings (1.96× baseline)2024-07-01: 12 filings (1.20× baseline)2024-08-01: 9 filings (1.71× baseline)2024-09-01: 12 filings (1.37× baseline)2024-10-01: 11 filings (0.83× baseline)2024-11-01: 8 filings (0.49× baseline)2024-12-01: 10 filings (1.05× baseline)2025-01-01: 7 filings (0.65× baseline)2025-02-01: 8 filings (1.07× baseline)2025-03-01: 17 filings (1.42× baseline)2025-04-01: 6 filings (0.60× baseline)2025-05-01: 9 filings (0.61× baseline)2025-06-01: 7 filings (0.55× baseline)2025-07-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2025-08-01: 3 filings (0.57× baseline)2025-09-01: 8 filings (0.91× baseline)2025-10-01: 19 filings (1.43× baseline)2025-11-01: 15 filings (0.92× baseline)2025-12-01: 20 filings (2.11× baseline)2026-01-01: 26 filings (260.00× baseline)2026-02-01: 23 filings (230.00× baseline)2026-03-01: 12 filings (120.00× baseline)2026-04-01: 21 filings (210.00× baseline)2026-05-01: 1 filings (10.00× baseline)

Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Fort Worth, TX as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Denton Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Denton Square

100% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Annualized rent equals 47% of average household income of $31,765, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The dominant input is economic stress at 9.3/10.

Severe burden reaches 30%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The poverty rate is 37%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.

Against the Denton County average of 3.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.4 points. The filing record is not thin: 1,480 evictions over 13 years of observation. At $1,242 a month, rents run 13% under what the rest of Denton commands.

Filings peaked in 2012 at 15.8% of renter households.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 48121021301

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 48121021301?

Census tract 48121021301 in the Denton Square neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 48121021301?

Median gross rent is $1,242/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 48121021301?

37.2% of residents in tract 48121021301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,335.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 48121021301?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 13th, minority 75th, housing 83th.
Q5

Is tract 48121021301 considered part of Denton Square?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 48121021301 fall within Denton Square (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 48121021301?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,480 eviction filings across 13 validated years in tract 48121021301 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.06% of renter households, peaking at 15.8% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

Did eviction filings in tract 48121021301 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 1.07× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Fort Worth eviction risk, TX), 2020-2021.
Q8

How does tract 48121021301 compare to Denton overall?

Tract 48121021301 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Denton at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Denton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Denton

Top eight tracts in Denton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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