Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally
Little Elm Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 48121020127 · Denton, TX · pop 7,499 · 98% of tract blocks fall in Little Elm
Tract 48121020127 sits in Little Elm, TX, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.7/10. It is home to 7,499 residents. The severe-burden share is 25%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 60%
Tract context
Occupied units2,547
Renter share39.5%
SVI overall0.84
Poverty rate9.9%
Median income$91,809
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
78
th percentile
High
Within state
77
th percentile
High
National
55
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Little Elm and the region
Centroid at 33.1482, -96.9484 · click any tract to drill in
Why Little Elm scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Little Elm
5.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.6
State political climate
Texas legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
9.9% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$1,486 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Little Elm
5.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Little Elm
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Little Elm
5.3
How Little Elm compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 84
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 65%Socioeconomic
- 94%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 78%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 164Total filings 2020-21
- 2.1Avg monthly (observed)
- 9.6Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.22×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Fort Worth, TX as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Little Elm
The main counterweight is state political climate at 1.5/10. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.6/10.
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.3/10. Average gross rent is $1,486, 24% below the Little Elm average. Against the Denton County average of 3.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points.
That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.6/10. Statewide the TX average is 3.9, so this tract runs 0.8 points hotter.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. 43% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
Annual rent works out to 19% of average household income of $91,809. 39% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 48121020127
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 48121020127?
Census tract 48121020127 in Little Elm scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 48121020127?
Median gross rent is $1,486/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 48121020127?
9.9% of residents in tract 48121020127 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,499.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 48121020127?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 84th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 65th, household 94th, minority 79th, housing 78th.
Q5
Did eviction filings in tract 48121020127 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.22× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Fort Worth eviction risk, TX), 2020-2021.
Q6
How does tract 48121020127 compare to Little Elm overall?
Tract 48121020127 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Little Elm at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Little Elm; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Little Elm
Top eight tracts in Little Elm ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · TX
48121020132
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · TX
48121020120
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · TX
48121020126
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · TX
48121020119
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · TX
48121020133
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · TX
48121020112
3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · TX
48121020130
3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · TX
48121020134
3
/ 10 · Low
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