Cibolo Eviction Risk: Lower

The voucher gap is 44.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The dominant input is supply constraint at 9.5/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10.

Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 1.5/10. It sits 0.7 points below the Guadalupe County average of 3.7. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Only 16% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 3.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the TX average is 3.9, so this tract runs 0.9 points cooler.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.