Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally
Brad Lee Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria
Tract 51510200201 ·
Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,718 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 51510200201 covers part of the Brad Lee area of Alexandria, VA, and scores 5.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,718. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.1/10.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 30%Stable renters 33%Owners 37%
Tract context
Occupied units1,787
Renter share62.1%
SVI overall0.45
Poverty rate4.6%
Median income$110,364
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Brad Lee
Moderate
Within parent city
53th percentile
#23 of 48 tracts In Alexandria
Moderate
Within county
49th percentile
#25 of 48 tracts In Alexandria city
Moderate
Within state
89th percentile
#251 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8273, -77.0987 · click any tract to drill in
Why Brad Lee scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.6% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$2,176 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Brad Lee compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 45
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
36%Socioeconomic
15%Household composition
61%Racial/ethnic minority
75%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
9.0%Housing insecurity
5.9%Utility-shutoff threat
9.5%Food insecurity
7.2%SNAP enrollment
6.0%Transit barriers
6.7%No health insurance
15.2%Frequent mental distress
23.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Brad Lee
24% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.1/10.
about half of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Alexandria City average of 41.2%. Food insecurity runs 9.5% against 17.8% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 7.2% against 15.2% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 72% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Alexandria City average of 5.7 closely. Average gross rent is $2,176, close to the Alexandria average.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200201?
Census tract 51510200201 in the Brad Lee neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200201?
Median gross rent is $2,176/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200201?
4.6% of residents in tract 51510200201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,718.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 45th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 36th, household 15th, minority 61th, housing 75th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200201 considered part of Brad Lee?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200201 fall within Brad Lee (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200201 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200201 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200201 scores 5.5/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.