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Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally

Captains Row Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria

Tract 51510202002 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 2,411 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

With a score of 5.5/10, tract 51510202002 in the Captains Row area of Alexandria, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,411. Against Alexandria City at 41.2%, 58% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 23% Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units1,593
Renter share55.2%
SVI overall0.12
Poverty rate2.6%
Median income$104,063

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Captains Row
Very High
Within parent city
49 th percentile
Rank, 49th percentileLowHigh
#25 of 48 tracts In Alexandria
Moderate
Within county
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#23 of 48 tracts In Alexandria city
Moderate
Within state
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#251 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.7921, -77.0423 · click any tract to drill in

Why Captains Row scores 5.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,924 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5

How Captains Row compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Captains Row risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.5This tracttract 2020025.9Alexandriaparent city5.7Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 12

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Captains Row. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Captains Row

Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.

Severe burden reaches 19%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10.

SNAP participation runs 3.2% against 15.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Nationally it ranks #23,808 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

It tracks the Alexandria City average of 5.7 closely. Average gross rent is $1,924, close to the Alexandria average. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $104,063.

55% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510202002

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510202002?

Census tract 51510202002 in the Captains Row neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51510202002?

Median gross rent is $1,924/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510202002?

2.6% of residents in tract 51510202002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,411.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510202002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 7th, household 6th, minority 40th, housing 47th.
Q5

Is tract 51510202002 considered part of Captains Row?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510202002 fall within Captains Row (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51510202002 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51510202002 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510202002 scores 5.5/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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