Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally

Jefferson Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria

Tract 51510200900 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 4,974 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

51510200900 is a census tract in the Jefferson Park area of Alexandria, VA. It scores 4.7/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,974 residents. Cost burden runs 15% here against 41.2% across Alexandria City.

Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2% Stable renters 10% Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units1,815
Renter share12.2%
SVI overall0.13
Poverty rate1.8%
Median income$250,001

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Jefferson Park
Moderate
Within parent city
4 th percentile
Rank, 4th percentileLowHigh
#46 of 48 tracts In Alexandria
Very Low
Within county
2 th percentile
Rank, 2nd percentileLowHigh
#47 of 48 tracts In Alexandria city
Very Low
Within state
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#649 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8260, -77.0754 · click any tract to drill in

Why Jefferson Park scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,228 rent vs county FMR
4.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5

How Jefferson Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Jefferson Park risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.7This tracttract 2009005.9Alexandriaparent city5.7Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 13

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Jefferson Park

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.

Food insecurity runs 4.3% against 17.8% nationally. Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.1/10.

Severe burden reaches 15%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. It sits 1.0 points below the Alexandria City average of 5.7. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 2.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Nationally it ranks #37,882 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 12% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Against average income of $250,001, annual rent is just 11%. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510200900

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200900?

Census tract 51510200900 in the Jefferson Park neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51510200900?

Median gross rent is $2,228/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 15% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200900?

1.8% of residents in tract 51510200900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,974.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200900?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 3th, household 11th, minority 31th, housing 55th.
Q5

Is tract 51510200900 considered part of Jefferson Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200900 fall within Jefferson Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51510200900 struggle to pay rent?

About 4.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51510200900 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510200900 scores 4.7/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related