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Neighborhood · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally

Lynhaven Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria

Tract 51510201204 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,012 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Tract 51510201204 sits in the Lynhaven area of Alexandria eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5/10. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 29% Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units1,460
Renter share43.9%
SVI overall0.16
Poverty rate3.6%
Median income$125,991

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Lynhaven
Very Low
Within parent city
28 th percentile
Rank, 28th percentileLowHigh
#35 of 48 tracts In Alexandria
Low
Within county
28 th percentile
Rank, 28th percentileLowHigh
#35 of 48 tracts In Alexandria city
Low
Within state
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#508 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8341, -77.0560 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lynhaven scores 5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,844 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5

How Lynhaven compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lynhaven risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.0This tracttract 2012045.9Alexandriaparent city5.7Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 16

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Lynhaven. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lynhaven

Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. 19% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. Against Alexandria City at 41.2%, around a third of renters here are cost-burdened.

SNAP participation runs 6.6% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 9.3% against 17.8% nationally. Against the Alexandria City average of 5.7, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points.

At $1,844 a month, rents run 12% under what the rest of Alexandria commands. Nationally it ranks #32,842 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.4/10. Rent consumes only 18% of average household income of $125,991, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510201204

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510201204?

Census tract 51510201204 in the Lynhaven neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51510201204?

Median gross rent is $1,844/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510201204?

3.6% of residents in tract 51510201204 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,012.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510201204?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 16th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 15th, household 8th, minority 62th, housing 34th.
Q5

Is tract 51510201204 considered part of Lynhaven?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510201204 fall within Lynhaven (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51510201204 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51510201204 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510201204 scores 5/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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